000
AXNT20 KNHC 132221
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 240 nm either side of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from 11N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 240 nm either side of the wave axis. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W, from 13N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 360 nm either side of the wave axis. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 13N southward 
into Venezuela, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 16N between 60W and
74W. 

A tropical wave that had been in the Caribbean Sea has moved W to
around 85W and is now in the Eastern Pacific. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes the African coast near the border of
Senegal and The Gambia to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W 
to 05N38W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
210 nm N of the ITCZ between 32W and 49W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure over the basin has caused all significant
convection to diminish today. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
occurring within 60 nm of the lower and middle Texas coast as well
as NE Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds are also pulsing within 60
nm of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, winds are mainly gentle
and SE. Seas are generally 2 to 3 ft, with some 4 ft seas
occurringlocally where fresh winds are ongoing. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the
Gulf waters and low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico will
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the
western Gulf through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
also expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly
at night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.
Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce
hazy skies over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging is dominant in the NW basin. See Tropical Waves
section above for details on convection associated with a tropical
wave impacting waters offshore Venezuela. The eastward extension
of the East Pacific monsoon trough is leading to scattered
moderate convection along 10N in the far SW basin. 

Fresh to strong NE to E trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are in the
south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E trades and seas of 5 to 
8 ft are in the remainder of the central and eastern basin, as 
well as the SW basin. In the NW basin, mainly moderate SE winds 
prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except in and near the Gulf of 
Honduras, where fresh to locally strong trades and seas of 5 to 7 
ft exist. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the central
Caribbean this week. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected 
in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection N of 28N between 66W and 71W is
associated with a weakening mid and upper level trough. Elsewhere,
the only convection in the basin is associated with tropical waves
that are described in the Tropical Waves section above. A cold
front stretches from 31N31W to 25N43W to 25N54W. A warm front
extending NW from the W edge of the cold front has weakened into a
surface trough. Convection previously along the cold front has 
dissipated.

N of the Bahamas, moderate to fresh S winds dominate with seas of
4 to 6 ft. S of 23N, moderate to fresh trades dominate with seas
of 4 to 6 ft. To the north, winds are mainly gentle with seas of 2
to 4 ft, except for an area of N swell, N of 28N between 35W and
50W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the far E Atlantic, within 120
nm off the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara, fresh NE winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring. 

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure centered over the 
central Atlantic extends a ridge across the forecast waters 
producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 22N and 
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds S of 22N. Little change 
of this weather pattern is expected this week. A cold front is 
forecast to clip the NW waters Wed night into Thu. As a result, 
expect fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and seas to near 8 ft
over the N waters, mainly N of 29N and W of 70W. 

$$
KONARIK