024 AXNT20 KNHC 121040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 34W and 37W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 13N southward into Suriname, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 12N between 55W and Trinidad/Tobago. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from 13N southward into Colombia, and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal coast near 16N17W and extends southwestward to 07N27NW. The ITCZ continues from 07N27W to 06N35W, then W of a tropical wave near 06N37W to 06N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up along the African coast from Guinea-Bissau southward to Liberia, from 04N to 13N and E of 28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 34W and 62W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends into the south-central Gulf with no significant convection at this time. Otherwise, a broad but modest 1011 mb high at the north- central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Gentle southerly winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft exist at the north- central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by midweek, winds will gradually increase to fresh and expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies across the SW Gulf through early this morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface ridge extends westward from a 1021 mb high at the central Atlantic to the northwestern basin. Convergent southeasterly winds south of the ridge axis are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over western Cuba and nearby Caribbean waters. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin north of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the north-central and eastern basin, and at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombia low will tighten this week. This will result in fresh to strong trade winds significantly expanding in areal coverage across the central Caribbean through the week. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds continue to couple with modest divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the central Bahamas northeastward to near 30N73W. A stationary front south of Bermuda is producing isolated showers north of 28N between 60W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft are present west of 70W from the Bahamas northward to beyond 31N. Otherwise, a broad Atlantic Ridge related to a 1021 mb high near 26N56W is supporting light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 23N between the Africa coast and Florida-Georgia coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are present from 13N to 23N between the central Africa coast and 30W, and also from 07N to 23N between 30W and the southern Bahamas. Light to gentle southeasterly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic Ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic today. As a cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, S to SW moderate to fresh winds will develop tonight through Fri across the waters N of 27N. Active weather affecting portions of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, is expected to diminish significantly by tonight. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola this afternoon and evening as well as Tue afternoon and evening. $$ AReinhart