000 AXNT20 KNHC 120000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed in the central Atlantic with axis near 34W from 02N to 11N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 32W and 42W. A tropical wave axis is SE of the Windward Islands with axis near 54W from 02N to 12N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 48W and 60W. A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis near 73W, south of 14N into Colombia, moving west around 15 kt. There is no convection associated with this wave over the basin. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast near 14N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N33W, then continues from 06N36W to 07N53W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted offshore the coast from Guinea to Sierra Leone, and from 02N to 10N between 16W and 24W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad and weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf is combining with low pressure over Texas and supporting light to gentle variable winds across the basin, except for moderate to locally fresh southerly winds along the coastal waters from Veracruz, Mexico all the way to the Florida Big Bend. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are also off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas basin-wide are between the 2 to 3 ft. Over the SW Gulf and western Bay of Campeche, smoke due to agricultural fires is likely currently reducing visibility to 2 to 4 nm in some areas, based on recent coastal surface observations from Mexico and satellite imagery. For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by midweek, winds will gradually increase to fresh and expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies across the SW Gulf tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad Atlantic surface ridge extends SW from a 1021 mb high pressure centered near 25N52W to the Bahamas and the NE Caribbean. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate convection along the Nicaragua offshore waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a tropical wave moving across Colombia this evening is supporting fresh trade winds across the E and central Caribbean, except for fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and in the NW Colombia offshore waters where seas are in the 7-8 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are over the NW Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombia low will tighten this week. This will result in trade winds increasing fresh to strong while significantly expanding in areal coverage across the central Caribbean tonight throughout the upcoming week. Winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For information about the tropical Atlantic, see the Tropical Waves section above. The Bermuda and Azores Highs extend a ridge across the entire subtropical Atlantic waters. In addition, a 1021 mb high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic near 25N52W. A cold front weakens this ridge from 31N54W to 30N62W where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to 31N72W. A middle to upper level trough just E of Florida is supporting scattered showers and tstms between 64W and 79W. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are N of 22N and W of 68W. Moderate to fresh E winds are S of 22N between Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico and extending as far as 46W. Light to gentle variable winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the current ridging pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic through Mon. As a cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, S to SW moderate to locally fresh winds will develop Mon night through Thu across the waters N of 27N. Active weather affecting portions of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, is expected to drift NW tonight and diminish significantly by Mon night. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola Mon and Tue afternoon and evenings. By Thu, fresh winds will increase in coverage N of 29N as a frontal boundary lingers near the southeast U.S. coast. $$ Ramos