000 AXNT20 KNHC 112338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed in the central Atlantic with axis near 34W from 02N to 11N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 32W and 42W. A tropical wave axis is SE of the Windward Islands with axis near 54W from 02N to 12N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 48W and 60W. A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis near 73W, south of 14N into Colombia, moving west around 15 kt. There is no convection associated with this wave over the basin. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast near 14N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N33W, then continues from 06N36W to 07N53W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted offshore the coast from Guinea to Sierra Leone, and from 02N to 10N between 16W and 24W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad and weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf is combining with low pressure over Texas and supporting light to gentle variable winds across the basin, except for moderate to locally fresh southerly winds along the coastal waters from Veracruz, Mexico all the way to the Florida Big Bend. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are also off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas basin-wide are between the 2 to 3 ft. Over the SW Gulf and western Bay of Campeche, smoke due to agricultural fires is likely currently reducing visibility to 2 to 4 nm in some areas, based on recent coastal surface observations from Mexico and satellite imagery. For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by midweek, winds will gradually increase to fresh and expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies across the SW Gulf tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad Atlantic surface ridge extends westward from a 1021 mb high pressure centered near 26N52W to South Florida. Some clouds and isolated showers are noted over the NW Caribbean and Cuba. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 14N and west of 77W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted over the far southeast Caribbean, south of 12.5N and east of 65W. Mainly fresh E to SE trade winds prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are 5 to 7 ft, except for 6 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. Moderate SE winds prevail over the NW Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombia low will tighten this week. This will result in trade winds increasing fresh to strong while significantly expanding in areal coverage across the central Caribbean tonight throughout the upcoming week. Winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extends from near the coast of South Carolina to the Turks and Caicos Islands. At the surface, a stationary front extends from 30N64W to 31N75W. Also, a weak surface trough is analyzed from 29.5N74W to 30.5N80W. Instability and upper-level divergence near and to the east of the upper- level trough axis is inducing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 28.5N between 66W and 79W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds extend across the western Atlantic, with seas 3 to 5 ft. Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N57W to 30N64W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 120 nm S of the front. Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds precede the front, mainly N of 28N and E of 59W to about 46W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in this area. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 26N52W. Broad ridging extends W from the high to South Florida, and east- northeastward from the high to near 29N41W. Light to gentle winds prevail across much of the northeastern Atlantic portion of the area with 3 to 5 ft seas. Farther south, moderate to fresh ENE trade winds prevail S of 22N and W of 45W, where recent altimeter data indicates seas are 4 to 6 ft. Between Mauritania and the Cabo Verde Islands, recent ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh NNE winds, while recent altimeter data shows seas of 5-6 ft in the area. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, 1021 mb high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic near 25N53W and extends a ridge W to the central Bahamas. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic through Mon. As a cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, S to SW moderate to locally fresh winds will develop Mon night through Thu across the waters N of 27N. Active weather affecting portions of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, is expected to drift NW tonight and diminish significantly by Mon night. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola Mon and Tue afternoon and evenings. By Thu, fresh winds will increase in coverage N of 29N as a frontal boundary lingers near the southeast U.S. coast. $$ Ramos