000 AXNT20 KNHC 111638 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jun 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 33W from 11N southward, and moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm either side of the wave axis from 04.5N to 06.5N. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is estimated to be along 53W from 10N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 300 nm E and within 150 nm W of the wave axis from 04N to 09N. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from 14N southward through western Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over western Venezuela and eastern Colombia along and within 120 nm E of the wave axis from 06N to 11N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted over southern Colombia from 01N to 05N between 71.5W and 75.5W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast near 14N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N31W, then continues from 06N34W to 06N52W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 11W and 20W. Scattered showers are from 04.5N to 08.5N between 35.5W and 41W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 07N to 11N between 57W and 63W, including over Trinidad. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad and weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf is combining with low pressure over NW Texas to produce moderate to fresh S winds across the NW Gulf and west-central Gulf. Buoy observations indicate that seas have recently built to 4 to 5 ft in this area. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere, where seas are 1 to 3 ft. No significant areas of precipitation are noted over the basin at this time. Over the SW Gulf and western Bay of Campeche, smoke due to agricultural fires is likely currently reducing visibility to 2 to 4 nm in some areas, based on recent coastal surface observations from Mexico and satellite imagery. For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by midweek, winds will increase to fresh to locally strong and expand to the central Gulf. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies across the SW Gulf today. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad Atlantic surface ridge extends westward from a 1021 mb high pressure centered near 26N52W to South Florida. Some clouds and isolated showers are noted over the NW Caribbean and Cuba. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 14N and west of 77W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted over the far southeast Caribbean, south of 12.5N and east of 65W. Mainly fresh E to SE trade winds prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are 5 to 7 ft, except for 6 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. Moderate SE winds prevail over the NW Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombia low will tighten this week. This will result in trade winds increasing to fresh to strong while significantly expanding in areal coverage across the central Caribbean tonight through most of the week. Winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon and Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extends from near the coast of South Carolina to the Turks and Caicos Islands. At the surface, a stationary front extends from 30N64W to 31N75W. Also, a weak surface trough is analyzed from 29.5N74W to 30.5N80W. Instability and upper-level divergence near and to the east of the upper- level trough axis is inducing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 28.5N between 66W and 79W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds extend across the western Atlantic, with seas 3 to 5 ft. Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N57W to 30N64W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 120 nm S of the front. Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds precede the front, mainly N of 28N and E of 59W to about 46W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in this area. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 26N52W. Broad ridging extends W from the high to South Florida, and east- northeastward from the high to near 29N41W. Light to gentle winds prevail across much of the northeastern Atlantic portion of the area with 3 to 5 ft seas. Farther south, moderate to fresh ENE trade winds prevail S of 22N and W of 45W, where recent altimeter data indicates seas are 4 to 6 ft. Between Mauritania and the Cabo Verde Islands, recent ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh NNE winds, while recent altimeter data shows seas of 5-6 ft in the area. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the current pattern with the ridge extending along 25/26N will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic through Mon. As a cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, S to SW moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail Mon night through middle of the week. Thunderstorms will likely diminish in coverage later today over portions of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola Mon and Tue afternoon and evenings. Later in the week, fresh winds will increase in coverage N of 29N as a frontal boundary lingers near the southeast U.S. coast. $$ Hagen