000 AXNT20 KNHC 111039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jun 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in Cuba and the Bahamas: The deep upper-level trough is moving eastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida into the western Atlantic. This allows divergent upper-level flow east of the trough axis to gradually shift away from Cuba and the Bahamas. Meanwhile, latest water vapor satellite imagery also reveals decreasing moisture at the low to mid levels across Cuba and the Bahamas. As a result, conditions are expected to improve for these areas later today. Residual moisture and modest convergent southerly surface winds can still cause widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and the Bahamas. Please refer to the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 10N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers are within 50 nm of the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 10N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 47W and 51W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from 11N southward through northern Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over southern Venezuela and east-central Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast near 14N17W to 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N30W to 05N48W then W of a tropical wave near 06N50W to 06N56W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is flaring up south of the monsoon trough off the Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone, and Liberia coasts from 02N to 13N and E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 30W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An outflow boundary across southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana and Mississippi is causing scattered showers off the Louisiana coast. Otherwise, a modest 1011 mb high over the north- central Gulf is dominating much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are evident across the north- central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, low pressure over Texas is bringing moderate to fresh SE winds across the western Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. As a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by midweek, winds will increase fresh to locally strong and expand to the central Gulf. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about Excessive Rainfall in Cuba. An Atlantic Ridge extends westward from a large dome of 1021 mb high at the central Atlantic to just west of Jamaica. Convergent southerly winds near the ridge axis are generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the southwestern basin northward across the Cayman Islands to eastern and central Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring in the SW basin off the Colombia and Panama coasts. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted at the south- central basin north of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the north- central and eastern basin. Light to gentle with locally moderate ESE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and the Colombia low will tighten this week. This will result in trade winds increasing fresh to strong while significantly expanding in areal coverage across the central Caribbean tonight through most of the week. Moderate to rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean during this time. Locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon and Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about Excessive Rainfall for the Bahamas. A stationary front curves westward from southwest of Bermuda across 30N78W. A warm front extends from 30N78W to the Georgia/South Carolina border. Convergent southerly winds south of this boundary are coupling with divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off the east coast of Florida and nearby Atlantic waters, off the northern Bahamas in addition to across the central Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist south and southeast of the stationary front north of 24N between 55W and 75W. Underneath the 1021 mb high pressure in the central Atlantic near 25N52W, winds are light to gentle. Pressure gradient north of the high pressure is leading to moderate to locally fresh winds with seas 5 to 7 ft. Moderate winds are noted south of the high to the ITCZ with seas to 5 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front is noted along 30N31W with a trough extending from 29N24W to 22N32W. Light to gentle winds prevail across this area with seas 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, gentle to moderate winds can be expected across the western Atlantic through Mon. As a cold front approaches the US East Coast, S to SW moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail Mon night through middle of the week. Enhanced thunderstorms will likely come to an end today over portions of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola Mon and Tue evening. Later in the week, fresh winds will increase in coverage N of 29N as a frontal boundary lingers near the southeast U.S. coast. $$ AReinhart