000 AXNT20 KNHC 090555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jun 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS: Moist southerly middle level wind flow, and a nearby upper level jet stream, are helping to maintain the potential for heavy rainfall amounts. More than 4 inches (100 mm) of rain have been measured in isolated areas in eastern Cuba during the last 24 hours. More rain is forecast during the next 2 days or 3 days. The comparatively greatest rain amounts are expected to occur through Saturday afternoon, in parts of eastern and central Cuba, and in the central Bahamas. It is possible that these rains may cause flooding, especially in the mountainous areas of eastern and central Cuba. Please, read the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13W/14W, from 10N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate is within 210 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 13N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 12N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave, mostly inland. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 13N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 11N to 13N. Other precipitation is inland. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 07N42W 07N55W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 12N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The surface pressure gradient currently is flat and weak. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 26N southward. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the SE corner, and in the far SW corner. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot elsewhere. The wind speeds are light and gentle. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the north of the line, from the middle Texas Gulf coast into the central Gulf, into the SE corner. A weak pressure gradient generally will prevail through the end of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will develop in the western Gulf during the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section. It is possible for heavy rainfall amounts to reach Cuba, through Saturday afternoon. An Atlantic Ocean 1021 mb high pressure center is near 27N53W. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure center, to the Dominican Republic along 70W, to NW Cuba. Strong, and some near gale-force, easterly winds cover the waters that are from Colombia and Venezuela between 68W and the Windward Passage. Fresh winds are elsewhere in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate SE winds are in the NW corner. Gentle winds are in the SW corner. The sea heights range: from 5 feet to 8 feet in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea; from 4 feet to 5 feet to the east of the central sections; from 3 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the area that is between 70W and 80W; reaching 1 foot in the SW corner; reaching 2 feet in the NW corner. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong covers the areas that are from 15N80W to Cuba. This precipitation is at the eastern edges of the multilayered cyclonic wind flow that is covering the Gulf of Mexico, and it is spilling over into parts of the NW Caribbean Sea. High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri. The ridge will weaken Fri night through the weekend which will modestly diminish winds and seas across the basin. A return to a more typical easterly trade wind regime is expected early next week with locally strong trades in the south central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section. It is possible for heavy rainfall amounts to reach the Bahamas through Saturday afternoon. A surface trough is along 31N35W 23N40W 19N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from 31N48W to 20N70W. The comparatively greatest amount of precipitation is the scattered strong that is from 22N to 24N between 74W and 76W in the Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are ahead of the front. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 23N29W. One surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 27N20W. A second surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 15N41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 14N northward from 50W eastward. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet to the northeast of the 1015 mb low pressure center. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong and near gale-force SW winds are from 27N northward between 60W and 66W, on the southern side of a frontal boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the coastal waters of Africa from 14N to 20N from 21W eastward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 21N southward between 38W and 60W. Moderate winds are elsewhere between 38W and 60W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 66W westward. Gentle winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. An Atlantic Ocean 1021 mb high pressure center is near 27N53W. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure center, to the Dominican Republic along 70W, to NW Cuba. Fresh to strong winds over the SW Atlantic will occur through Fri night due to a tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure system over the central Atlantic and lower pressures off the SE United States. High pressure will weaken over the upcoming weekend which will decrease in winds and seas across the area waters. $$ mt/akr