000 AXNT20 KNHC 080900 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jun 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall - Cuba and Bahamas: Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest of this area will maintain the potential for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur through Sat afternoon across portions of eastern and central Cuba and the central Bahamas. These rains could cause flooding, especially over mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 2W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 28W and 35W. The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 53W, from 12N southward, moving westward at 15 knots to 20 knots. Isolated convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 50W and 56W. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 70W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 knots to 15 knots. There is limited convection in the vicinity of the wave axis. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 82W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 07.5N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N17W to 06N29W. It resumes from 06N32W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 10W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 38W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters supporting mainly light to gentle winds across the Gulf waters. Small area of winds to moderate speeds are found over the waters west of the Yucatan peninsula as well as over the Yucatan channel. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the western Gulf over the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect Cuba through Sat afternoon. The pressure gradient between high pressure building north of the area and a tropical wave in the Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds over the southern Caribbean waters east of 75W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere east of 75W, with light to gentle winds west of 75W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range east of 74W, and 2-5 ft west of 75W. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area has increased winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean. The area of high pressure will weaken Fri night through the weekend, with winds and seas across the basin diminishing modestly. A return to a more typical easterly trade wind regime is expected early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, see Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect the Bahamas through Sat afternoon. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 24N61W, with associated ridge extending westward across the southern Bahamas. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds are found west of 60W. The pressure gradient between the high center and a tropical wave is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the tropical waters south of 20N and west of 50W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail over the remainder of the discussion area. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail across much of the discussion area. For the forecast, high pressure will build across the forecast waters through late Fri. The area of high pressure will then weaken over the upcoming weekend, leading to a decrease in winds and seas across the area waters. $$ AL