593 AXNT20 KNHC 071722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jun 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall - Cuba and Bahamas: Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest of this area will increase the the potential for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur from this afternoon through Sat afternoon across portions of eastern and central Cuba and the central Bahamas. These rains could cause flooding, especially over mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 29W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-08N between 25W-35W. The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 50W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-08N between 47W-53W. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 68W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is limited convection near the wave axis. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 79W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is south of 13N west of 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 10N16W. The ITCZ continues from 10N16W to 04N51W on the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists from 03N-08N east of 25N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 03N-08N from 25W-54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters supporting mainly light to gentle winds with seas in the 1-2 ft range. Isolated moderate convection is noted north of 24N east of 88W in association with an upper-level trough over the N central Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the western Gulf over the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect Cuba through Sat afternoon. The pressure gradient between the 1010 mb Colombian Low and high pressure northeast of the Caribbean is supporting fresh E trades over the central Caribbean and gentle to moderate elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central and E Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the W Caribbean. For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Tropical Atlantic will shift NW and strengthen through Thu, producing increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean through early Fri. Active weather is expected across N central portions through Fri. Atlantic high pressure will shift NE and weaken Fri night through the weekend, with winds and seas across the basin diminishing modestly. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect the Bahamas through Sat afternoon. A weak cold front extends from 30N51W west-southwestward to 29N57W, where it transitions to dissipating stationary front to 25N71W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-28N between 60W-75W. Farther east, a cold front enters our waters near 31N15W to 21N29W, where it transitions to a stationary front to a 1012 mb low near 21N35W. West of the low, a cold front extends westward to 20N41W, when transitions to a dissipating stationary front to 31N45W. These frontal boundaries and associated low pressure systems farther north have displaced the Bermuda/Azores High down to 20N58W with a 1019 mb central pressure. Winds ahead of the easternmost cold front north of 27N and east of 18W are SW fresh to strong. Elsewhere across the entire subtropical N Atlantic, the winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7-9 ft north of 25N and east of 30W and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front will stall and dissipate today. High pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward across the forecast waters tonight through Sat. Active weather is expected across the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic to 70W though Fri. Atlantic high pressure will drift NE over the upcoming weekend, leading to a decreasing trend in winds and seas across the area waters. $$ Landsea