000 AXNT20 KNHC 062141 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jun 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall - Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands: Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest of this area may lead to the potential for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur from Wed afternoon through Sat afternoon, especially across portions of eastern and central Cuba, the central Bahamas, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. These rains could cause flooding, especially over mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. Gale Warning E of 35W: A non-tropical area of low pressure located near the eastern Azores is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms with winds to gale force over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it meanders to the east of the Azores. By late Wednesday, the system is forecast to move northeastward over cooler waters, and further development is not expected. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds will continue across portions of the Canary Islands, Madeira Island, and the Azores over the next day or so. For additional information on this system, see products issued by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain, the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere, and High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. The latter has issued a gale warning for the marine zone of Irving. The Meteo-France forecast calls for cyclonic 8 east of Irving, mainly NW with severe gusts from 06/1800 UTC until 07/0300 UTC. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, from 14N southward. A few showers area near the wave axis. A second tropical wave is near 44W, from 13N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. A few showers area near the wave axis. A tropical wave extends over the SE Caribbean into Venezuela with axis along 65W, from 13N southward. The wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. This system appears to enhance convection over eastern Venezuela. The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Some convective activity is near the wave axis over northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 02N39W. It resumes from 02N43W to 05N35W to 04N52W along the coast of Brazil. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 00N-10N between 05W-20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters forcing only light to gentle winds with seas 1-2 ft over the entire basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over parts of the Gulf in association with an upper-level trough that extends from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the western Gulf over the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect the NW Caribbean Wed afternoon through Sat afternoon. A weak pressure gradient is also dominating the basin. As a result, trades are only gentle to moderate with seas of 3-5 ft in the E Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. A band-like of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends from near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua, across the Cayman Islands into eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas. This convective activity is likely being forced by a diffluent pattern aloft. For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Tropical Atlantic will shift NW and strengthen through Wed night, producing increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean through early Fri. Active weather is expected across N central portions tonight through Fri. Atlantic high pressure will shift NE and weaken Fri night through the weekend, with winds and seas across the basin diminishing modestly. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect the Bahamas Wed afternoon through Sat afternoon as well as a Gale Warning E of 35W. A cold front extends from a 1005 mb low pressure located E of Bermuda near 33N58W to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds with seas of 6-8 ft are ahead of the front. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 60 NM of the front. Farther east, a cold front crosses the Canary Islands extending S and SW from a complex area of low pressure over the eastern Azores mentioned above. The frontal boundary continues westward reaching a 1005 mb low at 25N26W. A cold front stretches from the low center westward to 24N42W, where it transitions to a stationary front reaching to 31N47W. Near the Canary Islands, north of 28N east of 20W, the winds are SW to S strong to near gale force with seas of 8-11 ft. The Bermuda High is shifted well south of its normal position, located this afternoon at 20N55W with 1017 mb pressure. Unless noted above, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front over the western Atlantic will drift SE through tonight and dissipate. Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward across the remaining waters Wed night through Sat. Active weather is expected across the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic to 70W Wed though Fri. $$ GR