000 AXNT20 KNHC 051652 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jun 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 35W, from 14N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-10N between 32W-38W. The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 54W, from 13N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. There is limited deep convection in the vicinity of the tropical wave. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 69W, from 14N southward, moving westward around 10 knots. There is limited deep convection in the vicinity of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 04N48W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 05N-10N east of 16W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-06N between 16W-26W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front extends across the NE Gulf from 29N83W to 30N87W. A trough extends over portion of the SE Gulf from 26N83W to 26N85W. An upper-level low is centered near 28N89W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with the low north of 27N west of 82W. Winds across the Gulf are gentle to moderate with seas 1-3 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the middle of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Very low latitude surface ridging east of 70W along 22N are contributing toward moderate to fresh SE trades in the E Caribbean this morning. Low pressure over and north of the Bahamas are contributing toward only light to gentle winds over the central and W Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N west of 80W in connection to the eastern extent of the eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough. Seas are 3- 6 ft in the E Caribbean and 2-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern across the region will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic through Tue, with occasional fresh pulses across the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela. High pressure will build to the northeast of the basin, increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean from the middle to end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N73W to 28N81W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N73W to S Florida peninsula near 27N80W. North of the front, winds are NE fresh to strong with seas 8-12 ft. In the central Atlantic, a 1007 mb low at 29N46W has a cold front extending west-northwestward to 30N50W and a warm front east-southeastward to 28N40W. Winds equatorward of the frontal boundaries are W fresh to strong with seas 8-10 ft. Farther east, a 1002 mb low at 29N30W has a trough extending southwestward to 24N35W. East of the trough axis, winds are SW fresh to near gale with seas 8-11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N east of 40W. Very low latitude ridging is noted from 23N20W to 16N35W to 20N60W to 22N70W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic north of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh with seas 5-7 ft. South of the ridge, the trades are only gentle to moderate with seas 3-5 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell will prevail over the waters off northeast Florida today as a weakening cold front sinks S into the NW Bahamas and S Florida. Winds will diminish this afternoon through tonight, while NE swell subsides more slowly and persists into Tue morning. Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the forecast waters throughout the week. $$ Landsea