000
AXNT20 KNHC 050901
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 31W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 31W and 36W. 

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 52W, from 14N
southward, moving west from 10 knots to 15 knots. There is limited
deep convection in the vicinity of the tropical wave. 

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 65W, from 14N 
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. There is 
limited deep convection in the vicinity of the tropical wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to
06N30W. It resumes from 06N33W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 20W
and 28W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the SE Gulf, with high pressure 
centered over the NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center, with gentle to moderate winds
prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the basin 
through the middle of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate 
winds. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds off the western coast of 
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted east of 70W as well as 
over the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range east of 70W, and 2-3 ft
elsewhere.  

For the forecast, weak pressure pattern across the region will
maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and the
tropical Atlantic through Tue, with occasional fresh pulses
across the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela. High
pressure will build north of the area, increasing winds and seas
over the eastern and central Caribbean from the middle to end of
the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N75W to northern Florida. Fresh
to strong winds are in the vicinity of the front, with seas in the
8-12 ft range. High pressure centered near 18.5N48W extends a 
ridge along 20N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft are in 
the vicinity of the area of high pressure. Fresh to strong winds, 
and seas of 7-10 ft are found N of the ridge and east of 60W. 
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted over the 
remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and large NE 
swell will prevail over the waters off northeast Florida today as 
a weakening cold front sinks S into the region. Atlantic high 
pressure will build across the forecast waters through the week.

$$
AL