000 AXNT20 KNHC 030432 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jun 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Arlene: At 03/0300 UTC, T.S. Arlene is centered near 25.4N 85.5W, or 150 nm WNW of the Dry Tortugas, and is moving SSE at 5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas range from 6-10 ft. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Weakening is expected, and Arlene is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 02N to 12N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 03N to 15N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 51W and 55W, and inland over S French Guiana and N Suriname. The previously analyzed Caribbean Sea tropical wave has dissipated. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from near 12N17W to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 05N36W, then resumes from 06N39W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 20W and 26W. The latest ASCAT pass indicated locally strong winds within this area of convection, though I note the likely rain contamination that degrades the data. Additional scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm north of the ITCZ, between 41W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Arlene. Moderate N winds prevail west of Tropical Storm Arlene, with gentle flow in the far western portions of the Gulf. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin, except 2-3 ft in the areas of weaker winds. Some smoke and haze with reductions to visibility are possible in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche due to ongoing agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern Central America. For the forecast, Arlene will weaken to a tropical depression near 24.4N 85.1W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 23.5N 84.0W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Elsewhere over the western Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected into the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate trades in the E Caribbean diminish to light to gentle speeds with varying directions in the W Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are noted in the Windward Passage. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is impacting W Hispaniola and adjoining waters, from 17N to 20N between 71W and 74W. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the central part of the basin will diminish early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas near 26N78W northeastward to 1002 mb low pressure near 32N65W. Gentle winds are within the vicinity of the trough. Fresh winds are within 120 nm south of the low pressure center. Seas are 4-6 ft in the W Atlantic, increasing to 6-8 ft north of 28N between 62W and 68W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 22N to 26N between 67W and 71W. Scattered showers are elsewhere in the vicinity of the surface trough. A warm front enters the TAFB Area near 31N61W and continues to 29N59W. A stationary front continues from 29N59W eastward to 26N40W then northeastward to 31N26W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the frontal boundaries. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is guided by two 1018 mb high pressures, centered near 23N32W and 25N25W. The weak pressure gradient across the basin provides for light to gentle W winds north of 21N and gentle to locally moderate trades S of 21N. Seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the low pressure just north of the area will shift ENE through early next week, impacting zones mainly north of 25N and east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are expected over the waters off northeast Florida late this weekend through early Mon. $$ Mahoney