000 AXNT20 KNHC 012249 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.0N 86.6W at 01/2100 UTC or 270 nm WNW of Ft. Myers Florida moving WNW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the NE quadrant of the depression. A motion to the south is expected to begin by Friday with gradually increasing forward speed. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts up to 6 inches are possible through Saturday across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. This rainfall is not directly related to Tropical Depression Two. This rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. Some modest intensification is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow. However, the system should begin to weaken by Friday night and degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic Ocean with its axis along 27W/28W, south of 13N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 25W and 31W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean with its axis along 49W, south of 16N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 46W and 52W. A tropical wave is in the far eastern Caribbean Sea with its axis along 62W/63W from 18N southward to across eastern Venezuela, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is confined to interior portions of eastern Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near the border of Guinea-Bissau and Senegal at 12.5N16W and continues southwestward to 06N31W. The ITCZ extends from 06N31W to 06.5N48W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 07N50W to near Trinidad and Tobago at 10.5N61W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07.5N between 35W and 39W, from 04N to 07.5N between 43W and 47W, and from 07N to 13N between 52W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on newly formed Tropical Depression Two. Aside from Tropical Depression Two, the rest of the Gulf of Mexico is under a dry airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds prevail, except light to gentle in the SE Gulf. Slight seas dominate the waters away from Tropical Depression Two. Some smoke and haze with reductions to visibility is possible in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche due to ongoing agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern Central America. For the forecast, other than Tropical Depression Two, over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend and into early next week, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... A complex weather pattern over the western Caribbean due to newly formed Tropical Depression Two in the Gulf of Mexico, surface troughing in the Bahamas, and divergence aloft results in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from Central America to eastern Cuba and across Hispaniola, especially between 69W and 81W. The remainder of the basin is devoid of deep convection, except over and offshore western Panama and near the northern coast of Colombia due to the proximity of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the basin under a weak pressure pattern, except fresh in the SE Caribbean offshore northern Venezuela and S of 15N. Seas of 4-5 dominate the waters E of 76W, with 1-3 ft seas W of 76W. Higher winds and seas are possible in any deep convection. For the forecast, the upper level pattern is forecast to change little over the next few days, thus heavy rainfall is possible across the eastern Cuba, Jamaica, western Hispaniola and SE Bahamas. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become southerly moderate over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night, then generally light Mon and Mon night ahead of a trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean. Light to gentle northerly winds are expected behind the trough. Winds will be generally gentle to moderate Tue and Tue night, except for fresh winds expected in the eastern and south-central Caribbean sections. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from a low pressure system off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, entering the SW N Atlantic near 31N73W to a 1010 mb low pressure area near 29.5N73W, and continuing southwestward to SE Florida. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted across most of the SW N Atlantic waters W of 60W. Moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds are occurring about N of 27N and E of the low and trough to 65W. Seas are mainly 3-6 ft across the waters W of 55W. Stronger winds are likely near the deep convection. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N32W to 26.5N46W, then continues as a stationary front to 30N60W. A dissipating cold front extends across the eastern Canary Islands. Neither boundary is producing deep convection. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad, weak subtropical ridge centered from 20N to 25N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds south of 18N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in the region described are 5-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere, except to around 6 ft along 31N between 35W and 50W behind the cold front. For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough extending from near West Palm Beach, Fl northeastward to low pressure near 30N74W 1010 mb and to 31N72W will be the focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days, along and east of the trough. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this trough tonight to the southwest of Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend from 30N69W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it shifts E along a frontal boundary to the S of Bermuda on Fri. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are expected over the waters E of northern Florida from Sun afternoon through early Mon in the wake of a cold front. The cold front will stall and weaken over the NE and W central waters Tue and Tue night. $$ Lewitsky