000 AXNT20 KNHC 301805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue May 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean is along 20W/21W, from 11N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 10W and 26W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 12N southward, moving westward from 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 11N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between the 34W/35W tropical and the 47W tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between the 47W tropical and the 60W/61W tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 11N between 68W and the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 11N, to 07N21W. The monsoon trough continues from 07N21W, to 05N27W 05N46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas of the tropical waves from 52W eastward, and to the southeast of the line 14N52W 27N28W 28N15W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate is from 10N northward to the southeast of the 14N52W-to-28N15W line. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Gulf of Mexico. The southeastern part of an inland Mexico surface trough reaches the coastal plains of Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A second surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean and the Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to 25N85W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 22N to 26N between 84W and 87W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere. Gentle to moderate wind speeds cover the entire area. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot from SE Louisiana toward NW Cuba. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet elsewhere. A mid to upper level-trough is producing numerous thunderstorms over the south-central Gulf. This activity is shifting eastward. A surface trough or surface low pressure could form over the south-central or southeastern Gulf tonight or Wed and potentially linger over the eastern Gulf into Fri. Moderate winds are forecast in the area, but there is a chance that the trough or low could develop fresh to strong winds later this week. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are also possible across the eastern half of the Gulf Wed into Fri. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong precipitation, cover the area that is from 17N northward from Hispaniola westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is covering the Gulf of Mexico also. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 30/1200 UTC, are: 0.83 in Trinidad, 0.34 in Guadeloupe, 0.06 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.04 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. The monsoon trough is along 10N from 75W in Colombia, beyond 10N in Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward from 74W westward. Moderate to some fresh E to SE winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate winds cover much of the central one-third of the area. Fresh winds are offshore Colombia between 71W and 75W. Gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from 80W eastward. An exception is for sea heights of 2 feet offshore Venezuela along 70W, and for 2 feet to the south of Jamaica. The sea heights are ranging from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N, from 57W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 32N72W. A cold front extends from the 1011 mb low pressure center to 26N75W. A surface trough continues from 26N75W, across the Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, into the SE Gulf of Mexico near 25N85W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 28N northward between 65W and 69W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the west of the line 31N59W 20N70W. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 30/1200 UTC, are: 1.54 in Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Cyclonic moderate and gentle winds, with some fresh winds, are from 26N northward from 70W westward. Moderate and slower wind speeds are elsewhere from 26N southward from 70W westward. A cold front passes through 31N27W to 28N38W, beyond 31N43W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 18N northward. N of the front, winds are moderate from the NW with 6-8 ft seas. S of the front, winds are fresh from the WSW with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds are south of 24N between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, where the seas are 6-8 ft. The winds are moderate to fresh from the E with 5-7 ft seas, from 20N southward. A surface ridge passes through 31N14W, across the Canary Islands, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 28N19W, to a second 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 24N38W, to 28N59W. Broad and gentle anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean that is from 16N northward from 65W eastward. A weak pressure pattern will result in quiescent conditions through Thu. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by late this week, extending across the western Atlantic from Florida to well south of Bermuda. Increasing winds and building seas are likely over the waters east of the Bahamas on Sat. Expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the western Atlantic by Thu. $$ mt/ja