000 AXNT20 KNHC 271804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat May 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between the 20W tropical wave and the 34W tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W, from 11N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 40W and 56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 14N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 11N southward. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 07N12W at the coast of Sierra Leone, to 07N18W 04N27W 05N32W 03N36W 04N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front reaches 25N80W off the coast of Florida. A surface trough continues, through the Straits of Florida, to the south central Gulf, to the west central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are spread throughout the entire area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from the NE corner into the south central sections. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot off the coast of Mexico near 20N. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds are behind the front in the NE and east central sections. Light to gentle winds are offshore Galveston and Port Arthur in Texas. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Building high pressure will maintain fresh NE winds in the NE Gulf into this afternoon, diminishing by late afternoon. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through through early next week, supporting only gentle to moderate winds. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form over the western Gulf by mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 27/1200 UTC, are: 0.27 in Guadeloupe, 0.12 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.08 in Trinidad, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N northward between 68W and 75W, off SE Cuba, and from 17N to 19N between 82W and 86W. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the eastern one-third of the area, and in the north central sections. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate to locally fresh ESE trades are in the eastern part of the area. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds are in the central sections. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. A low pressure system north of the Bahamas is maintaining a weak pres gradient across the Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic today, forcing light to moderate trades. As the low moves N away from the area through Sun, the Bermuda/Azores High will shift eastward, continuing to support tranquil conditions over the area for the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves through 31N77W, through the NW Bahamas, to 25N80W. A surface trough continues from 25N80W, through the Straits of Florida, into the south central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in individual clusters, from 20N northward between 60W and the cold front. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 27/1200 UTC, are: 3.11 in Bermuda, 0.67 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and 0.07 in Freeport in the Bahamas, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 34N43W. A surface ridge extends from the 1025 mb high pressure center, through 31N47W 28N54W 22N70W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 17N southward between 30W and 60W, and elsewhere from 60W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 17N northward between 30W and 60W. Fresh to moderate winds cover much of the area, from 06N to 30N. Gentle or slower wind speeds are elsewhere. A 1000 mb low pressure is centered off Georgia with a cold front extending southwestward from the low to off the Upper Florida Keys. Scattered showers prevail along and just east of the northern Bahamas. The low pressure is forecast to move north of the area by this evening. Near gale force NE winds will continue through this afternoon off northeast Florida while backing to NW, then diminish through Sun morning. High pressure ridging will lead to quiescent conditions Sun through Wed. $$ mt/ec