637 AXNT20 KNHC 271019 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat May 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low pressure is centered near 30N79W off northeast Florida. This low is expected to gradually lift northward today and move north of 31N this evening. The pressure gradient between the high over the northeastern U.S. and the low is generating gale-force northerly winds along with 12 to 18 ft seas off the coast of NE Florida. Additionally, latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer imagery reveals fresh to strong northerly winds offshore from Cape Canaveral. Model and buoy data suggest seas are from 10 to 14 ft. These conditions will persist offshore from Cape Canaveral through this afternoon. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from south to north by this evening as the low moves north of the area. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 20W from 12N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 03N to 07N between 19W and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 33W from 11N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 31W and 38W. A western Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 48W from 12N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present S of 08N between 44W and 52W. Another tropical wave extends its axis along 61W at 13N southward across the Venezuela-Guyana border, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 07N21W. THe ITCZ continues from that point to 04N32W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near the ITCZ segment from 02N to 07N between 26W and 32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The west end of a cold front curves westward across the southeastern Gulf from the Florida Strait to just north of western Cuba, then continues west-northwestward as a surface trough to near 24N93W. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds, and 2 to 5 ft seas are evident behind the front across the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are noted offshore from Galveston and Port Arthur, Texas. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, building high pressure will produce fresh NE winds in NE Gulf through this afternoon. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days, supporting only gentle to moderate winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western end of the Atlantic ridge extends southwestward across Hispaniola to near Jamaica. Converging southerly winds near the ridge axis are coupling with divergent upper-level flow to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Passage and western Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the low pressure system north of the Bahamas is maintaining a weak pres gradient across the Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic today, forcing light to moderate trades. As the low moves N away from the area through Sun, the Bermuda/Azores High will shift eastward, continuing to support tranquil conditions over the area for the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front curves south-southwestward from a 1005 mb low pressure off the northeast Florida coast at 30N79W to beyond the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are occurring E of the front between 70W-76W. A broad surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 33N47W. Across the western Atlantic outside the Gale Warning area, moderate to fresh SE to S winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are present north of 20N between 60W and just east of the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found across the Bahamas and Great Bahamas Bank. For the central and eastern Atlantic, light to gentle NNE to ENE trades and 2 to 5 ft seas exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 55W. In the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted from 06N to 20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle NE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the gale-low is forecast to move north of the area by this evening. Gale force NE winds will continue through this morning while backing to NW. Winds and seas should diminish by this afternoon through Sun morning. High pressure ridging will lead to quiescent conditions Sun through Wed. $$ ERA