000 AXNT20 KNHC 262301 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat May 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 30N79W off NE FL. This low is expected to continue strengthening and meander along the Florida coast tonight before lifting north of 31N Sat evening. The pressure gradient between the high over the northeastern U.S. and the low is generating gale- force winds off the coast of NE Florida. These winds are expected to persist through Sat evening. Seas are currently in the 8-12 ft range, and will build to 18 ft overnight. Additionally, fresh to strong winds and 10 to 13 ft seas will spread towards Cape Canaveral today through Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Sat night into Sun as the low moves north of the area. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 18W from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered weak convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 15W and 22W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 31W from 11N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this feature at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 47W from 10N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis N of 07N. A tropical wave extends its axis along 60W from 13N southward into Guyana, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 12N between 54W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 00N40W to 00N50W. All significant convection was identified in the tropical wave section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the SE Gulf from 25N81W to 24N85W. A surface trough continues across the central Gulf from 24N85W to 26N96W. North of these features winds are moderate from the NE with 2-4 ft seas. South of these features winds are gentle from the NW-N with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, building high pressure behind a stationary front extending from the Florida Keys westward to the central Gulf will produce fresh NE winds in NE Gulf tonight through Sat morning. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days, supporting only gentle to moderate winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western end of the Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward across the Eastern Caribbean and Hispaniola. Converging southerly winds near the monsoon trough are triggering isolated thunderstorms along the coast of Colombia. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas to 4 ft are noted in the eastern half of the basin. Light to gentle winds with seas to 2 ft are noted in the western half of the basin. For the forecast, a low pressure system north of the Bahamas is maintaining a weak pres gradient across the Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic today, forcing only light to moderate trades. Even after the low pressure moves north tomorrow, the Bermuda/Azores High will shift eastward, continuing to support tranquil conditions over the area for the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N78W to the 1007 mb low pressure off the coast of NE Florida. A cold front extends south of the low pressure to the Florida Keys. Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted across the western Atlantic off the Florida coast and the northern Bahamas, N of 22N and W of 68W. Strong to gale force winds are noted off the NE Florida coast with seas to 12 ft. Outside of that area, light to gentle winds prevail across the western Atlantic with 5-8 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, high pressure extends across the area with isolated thunderstorms occurring north of the Leeward Islands. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail, with locally fresh winds farther west. Seas range 4-6 ft. High pressure extends across the eastern Atlantic with light to gentle winds and seas to 4 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the low pres is forecast to meander over the W Atlc through Sat morning, then move north of the area by Sat evening. NE winds have strengthened to gale this afternoon over the NE Florida offshore waters, and will continue through Sat morning while backing to NW. Winds and seas should diminish Sat afternoon through Sun morning. High pressure ridging will lead to quiescent conditions Sun through Wed. $$ Flynn