000 AXNT20 KNHC 261025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri May 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb frontal low centered near Lake Okeechobee, Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift northeastward into the western Atlantic for the next couple of days, then move north of 31N by Sat night. The pressure gradient between the high over the northeastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to strong N-NW to N-NE winds and 10 to 13 ft seas in large NE swell over the northeast Florida offshore waters beginning this afternoon, spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral through Sat afternoon. These winds will reach gale- force offshore northeast Florida this afternoon through Sat morning. Seas will build higher and peak at 15 to 19 ft during the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish Sat night into Sun as the low weakens and moves north of the area. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been analyzed in this map, with axis along 15W between 02N-12N. At this time, scattered moderate convection prevails within this wave mainly E of 20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W from 12N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 02N to 10N between 22W and 32W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from 12N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis. A tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 12N southward into Suriname, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 12N between 49W and 57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough reaches southwestward from inland Senegal across the coast near the Senegal-Gambia border to 12N18W. The ITCZ extends westward from 08N17W to 07N24W, then resumes from 01N27W to 00N42W. The convection in the vicinity of these boundaries is described in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front curves westward from a 1007 mb low near Lake Okeechobee, Florida across the east-central Gulf to near 26N89W. A surface trough continues from that point to 28N93W. Another trough extends from the low to western Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted behind the cold front across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail N of 25N and E of 90W through Sat. Weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas will build to moderate through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western end of the Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward across Hispaniola to just east of Nicaragua. Convergent southerly winds near monsoon trough are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the south-central basin, just north of Colombia and Venezuela. Aided by strong upper-level divergence, scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident over eastern Cuba and nearby Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted for the eastern and north-central basin. NE to E gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the south-central and southwestern basin. Light to gentle WSW to W winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western Caribbean through today, supporting light to gentle winds. The Azores High will continue to support moderate E-SE trade winds through the weekend over the E Caribbean, diminishing slightly into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A stationary front extends southwestward from off the Georgia- South Carolina coast near 31N78W to a 1007 mb low near Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the western Atlantic mainly W of 65W. At the eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near 30N30W is generating scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 26W and 32W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted off the northeast Florida coast north of 28N between 80W and the Georgia-northern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident from 20N to 31N between 73W and 80W. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are noted north of 20N between 31W and 73W, and from 06N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and tstms prevail across the western Atlantic, mainly west of 65W. The low pres is forecast to strengthen and drift over the W Atlc through today, then move N to near 31N79W by Sat morning before moving north of the area by Sat evening. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and large NE swell will prevail across the NE Florida offshore waters today, spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral through Sat before the low moves N of the area. N to NE gales are expected offshore northern Florida this afternoon through Sat morning. High pressure ridging will lead to quiescent conditions Sun and Mon. $$ ERA