961 AXNT20 KNHC 232303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed May 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Ashfall Advisory: The Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico continues to emit frequent moderate ash. The ashfall that earlier was over the Caribbean Sea has dissipated. The ashfall over the SW Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche appears to be dissipating as observed in latest GOES-R imagery. In the event that mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris are encouraged to report this observation to the National Hurricane Center, by calling +1-305-229-4424. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W from 01N to 13N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 12N between 26W-31W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the wave axis from 06N to 09N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 01N to 12N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed east of the wave from 03N to 09N and between 35W-44W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N25W. The ITCZ resumes at 06N30W to 04N42W and resumes again from 04N45W to 03N51W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 21W-25W. All significant convection in this area was described in the tropical wave section. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information on the Ashfall Advisory for the SW Gulf of Mexico. A new 1013 mb low pressure center is analyzed on the coastal border between Mississippi and Alabama near 30N88W with an associated stationary boundary that straddles the Gulf coast from New Orleans, LA to Apalachicola, FL. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 27N and east of 90W. Otherwise, a 1014 mb high pressure is centered near 23N32W with a weak gradient dominates the pattern. Winds are light to gentle across the basin with smooth seas of 2 ft or less. For the forecast, a modest cold front will move S through the eastern Gulf Wed through Fri, followed by moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds E of 90W through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will generally dominate the basin through the rest of the week, yielding light to gentle winds through tonight, and gentle to moderate thereafter. Seas will start out slight, but building with the increasing winds behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed within 120 nm south of Puerto Rico and in the Mona Passage. The presence of low pressure in the subtropical Atlantic is maintaining a weak pressure gradient across the basin. Winds are gentle to moderate across the basin. 1-3 ft seas prevail across the majority of the basin, with areas of 2-4 ft seas north of Panama and in the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, elongated low pres north of the basin will help to maintain a weak pressure gradient across the central and western Caribbean through Thu, supporting light to gentle winds. A pre- frontal trough will move into the NW Caribbean by Thu night where it will stall and linger through the end of the week, leading to a slight increase in winds and seas there. Over the eastern Caribbean, the Azores High will support gentle to moderate E-SE trade winds through the forecast period, locally fresh offshore northern Venezuela. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters east of 65W through this evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A well-defined surface low pressure of 1009 mb is observed near 27N71W. The low is along a trough that extends from near 31N70W to the low, and continues from the low to the central Bahamas. This feature is roughly 30 nm south of NDBC buoy 41047, which is reporting NNW winds of 10 kt and combined seas of 6 ft in a 9 second easterly swell. A recent ASCAT pass highlighted moderate to fresh southerly winds within 180 nm of the low and trough north of 22N. Seas with these winds are 6-8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 25N to 31N between 67W and 71W. West of the aforementioned trough, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE along with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from near 31N40W to 26N40W. No significant convection is noted with this feature. High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to locally fresh from the N-NE with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the low will track N-NE and reach just north of the area near 31.5N69.5W Wed morning where it will interact with a weak cold front approaching from the NW, then move well NE and exit the region Wed night. Fresh to strong SE winds, rough seas, with scattered showers and tstms will prevail E of the low and trough through Wed. New low pres is forecast to develop over central Florida late Wed, move N-NE off the peninsula Thu, and across the far NW waters through Sat. The pres gradient between high pres over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to locally strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters beginning Thu night through Sat, with possible gales offshore Jacksonville, Florida Fri night. $$ Aguirre