000 AXNT20 KNHC 230510 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue May 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Ashfall Advisory: The Popocatepetl Volcano continues to be in a state of unrest. Frequent moderate to large eruptions are noted in various satellite images, with ash plumes reaching as high as 30000 ft. Upper-level westerly winds are transporting the ash across the adjacent SW Gulf of Mexico south of 21N and west of 91W. The latest surface observations in the area show visibilities of 5-7 nm. Mariners who encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris are encouraged to report this observation to the National Hurricane Center, by calling +1-305-229-4424. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 12N. It is moving west at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 04N to 09N and between 21W and 33W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of 12N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 10N and between 36W and 45W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 07N24W, then from 07N26W to 07N39W and then from 07N42W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 46W and 56W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information on an Ashfall Advisory for the SW Gulf of Mexico. A weak outflow boundary is moving from the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico resulting in a few showers near the boundary. The rest of the basin is dominated by a weak high pressure system positioned just south of Louisiana. Surface observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass show light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevailing over most of the Gulf, except for localized fresh winds off the Big Bend region of Florida and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf waters. For the forecast, weak high pressure will generally dominate the basin through the week, yielding light to gentle winds and slight seas. A modest cold front will move S through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wed, bringing moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds E of 95W through Fri morning. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W continues to erupt. Ash has moved E-NE away from the volcano and over the Bay of Campeche, S of 22N and W of 90W. Visibility may be restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall through tonight. Mariners should exercise caution. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough north of the Lesser Antilles is enhancing the scatted moderate convection seen across the Lesser Antilles and surrounding waters. The rest of the Caribbean Sea experiences generally dry conditions. The weak pressure regime maintains gentle to moderate easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean, while light to gentle easterly breezes are found in the remainder of the basin. Seas are slight to moderate across the Caribbean. For the forecast, elongated low pressure in the SW N Atlantic along 72W and developing low pressure over Florida by mid-week will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the central and western Caribbean through Sat, supporting light to gentle winds. Over the E Caribbean, the Azores High ridge along with lower pressure over northern S America will support gentle to moderate SE trade winds through the forecast period. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters E of 68W through Tue evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1008 mb low pressure remains north of the eastern Bahamas, near 25N72W. A surface trough extends from another low pressure near Bermuda to the previously- mentioned low pressure to 21N71W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring to the east of the surface trough, especially to west of 65W and north of 22N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh northerly winds within 180 nm of the low in the W and NW quadrants. Gentle to moderate winds, in cyclonic fashion, are noted elsewhere within 360 nm of the low and trough. Seas of 6-9 ft are present over the waters north of 22N and east of the Bahamas to 60W. Farther west, a weak stationary front reaches NE Florida and a few storms are seen near and north of the boundary. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge positioned north of the Azores. The pressure gradient support moderate to fresh easterly winds over most of the central and eastern Atlantic waters. Localized strong winds are evident in the areas of the ITCZ where strong convection resides. Moderate seas are prevalent in the central and eastern Atlantic. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, elongated low pressure extends across the Atlantic from a 1008 mb low center near 24.5N72W to 31N70W. This feature will move slowly NNE through Tue morning, when it will interact with a weak cold front approaching from the NW. Afterward, the low will move NE and exit the region Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong SE winds, rough seas and scattered showers and tstms will prevail E of the low and trough through Wed. Low pressure is forecast to develop over central Florida by mid-week, move N-NE off the peninsula Wed night and across the far NW waters through late Fri. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to locally strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters through Sat. $$ DELGADO