000 AXNT20 KNHC 221700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon May 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in Panama, Colombia and Venezuela: A pronounced deep layered upper level trough extends from the W Atlantic along about 70W southward across Hispaniola to the coast of northern Colombia. The upper level trough continues to interact with the monsoon trough to trigger widespread deep convection across Panama, northern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela, and adjacent Caribbean waters. Excessive rainfall is possible through today, before the threat diminishes tomorrow and through the rest of the week. Please refer to the latest forecasts from your local meteorological agencies for more information. Gulf of Mexico Ashfall Advisory: The Popocatepetl Volcano continues to be in a state of unrest. Intermittent large eruptions continue from the volcano this morning, with ash plumes reaching as high as 30000 ft. Upper level westerly winds are transporting the ash across the adjacent SW Gulf of Mexico, from 22N southward and as far west as 91W. The latest surface observations in the area show visibilities of 5-7 nm. Mariners who encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris are encouraged to report this observation to the National Hurricane Center, by calling +1-305-229-4424. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, from 12N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Convection near the wave is described in the ITCZ section. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, from 12N southward, moving west at 1to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 20W and 25W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland across Africa. One segment of the ITCZ is analyzed from 05N25W to 07N36W. A second segment of the ITCZ is from 05N41W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 25W and 32W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the coast of French Guiana and Suriname north to 08N between 50W and 56W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an ASHFALL ADVISORY for the SW Gulf of Mexico. The previously analyzed stationary front has lost all significant temperature and moisture gradients, and is now analyzed as a surface trough. This surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pressure centered near Tallahassee, FL to 27N88W to 26N96W. Another surface trough extends from the low pressure southward, parallel to the coast of Florida along 83W. Seas are 1-2 ft and winds are light and variable across the Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate. This pattern will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas. A modest cold front will move S through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wed, bringing moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds E of 95W through Fri morning. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has had several large eruptions in the past day and eruptions continue this morning. Ash has moved E-NE away from the volcano and over portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico, S of 22N and W of 91W. Visibility may be restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall through this afternoon. Mariners should exercise caution. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about heavy rainfall in parts of Colombia, Panama, and Venezuela, during the next few days. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Windward Islands and surrounding waters, from 10N to 15N between 58W and 65W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is south of Puerto Rico, from 16N to 18N between 65W and 70W. Both areas of convection are enhanced by favorable divergent upper level flow. Light to gentle trades prevail across the Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas in the eastern and central basin, and 1-3 ft seas in the western basin. Winds and seas may be locally higher in the areas of convection. For the forecast, elongated low pressure across the Atlantic along 72W and developing low pressure over Florida by mid-week will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the central and western Caribbean through Fri night, thus supporting light to gentle winds in these regions. Over the E Caribbean, the SW extension of the Azores High ridge along with lower pressure over northern S America will support gentle to moderate trade winds through the forecast period. Expect scattered showers and tstms across the waters E of 70W through Tue evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 24.8N72.4W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted near the low pressure, with seas of 8-9 ft. A trough extends from 29N71W through the low pressure to 22N72W. Scattered moderate convection is east of the low and trough, from 20N to 28N between 66W and 71W. Additional scattered moderate convection is north of 28N between 63W and 70W. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by 1032 mb Bermuda/Azores high centered north of the discussion waters. Trades are moderate to locally fresh across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, elongated low pressure across the SW N Atlantic along 72W, generating scattered showers and tstms, and fresh to strong SE winds between 60W and 71W will move slowly NNE through Tue morning when it will interact with a weak cold front approaching from the NW. Afterward, the low will continue to move NNE and exit the region Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong SE winds, rough seas and showers and tstms will prevail E of the low through Wed. A low pressure is forecast to develop over central Florida by mid-week, move off the peninsula Wed night and move across the the far NW waters through Fri night. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the E CONUS and the low will support fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas across the NE Florida offshore waters during this period. $$ Mahoney