000 AXNT20 KNHC 221030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon May 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in Panama, Colombia and Venezuela: A pronounced deep layered upper level trough extends from the W Atlantic along about 70W southward across Hispaniola to the coast of northern Colombia. The upper level trough continues to interact with the monsoon trough to trigger widespread deep convection across Panama, northern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela, and adjacent Caribbean waters. This trend will continue through at least Monday. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection extends from the waters of the far Tropical eastern Pacific eastward to Venezuela early this morning. Please, refer to the latest forecasts from your local meteorological agencies for more information. Volcanic Ash from Popocatepetl: The Popocatepetl Volcano continues in a state of unrest. Intermittent large eruptions continue from the volcano this morning, and are reaching as high as 30000 ft into the atmosphere. Upper level westerly winds are transporting the ash across the adjacent Gulf of Mexico, from 22N southward and as far west as 92W. It is possible that some of the ash may be reaching the surface, which may reduce the visibilities for marine operations. Mariners should exercise caution. Mariners who encounters volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris are encouraged to report this observation to the National Hurricane Center, by calling 001-305-229-4424. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 37.5W, from 12N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Associated scattered moderate convection is confined along the ITCZ from 05.5N to 07.5N between 36W and 40W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 18W, from 12N southward, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 12W and 19W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland across Africa. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N21W to 05.5N36W, then resumes from 05N40W to coastal Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 19W and 35W, and between 39W and 56W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about volcanic ash in the southwestern corner of the area. Highest concentrations of ash are near the Mexican coast W of 94W, where visibilities may be as low as 3 nm. A weak stationary front extends from 1012 mb low pressure across the Florida Panhandle to just offshore of Corpus Christi, Texas. Gentle N to NE winds prevail north of this boundary. To the south, light to gentle NE winds generally dominate the remaining waters, except moderate N to NE winds along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough lingers along the W coast of the Florida Peninsula. Seas are generally 2 ft or less across the basin expect to 3 ft along the W coast of the Yucatan. Widely scattered moderate connection is along the stalled front to the E of 90W. The weak front will dissipate over the far northern Gulf of Mexico through Tue, but overall weak high pressure will dominate. This pattern will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas. A modest cold front will move S through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wed, bringing gentle to moderate N to NE winds to the basin. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has had several large eruptions in the past day and eruptions continue this morning. Ash has moved E-NE away from the volcano and over portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico, S of 22N and W of 91W. Visibility may be restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall through this afternoon. Mariners should exercise caution. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about heavy rainfall in parts of Colombia, Panama, and Venezuela, during the next few days. Upper level cyclonic wind flow from an energetic Atlantic trough covers the area from 78W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is on the western side of the cyclonic wind flow, from 13N northward between 70W and NE Nicaragua/ E Honduras. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection persists N of 16N to the coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic E of 70W, and across much of the southeast Caribbean. The surface trough to the N of Hispaniola is disrupting the typical pressure gradient across the basin, and yielding moderate SE winds E of 68W and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 5 ft across eastern portions and offshore of Colombia, and 3 ft or less elsewhere. Elongated low pressure prevails across the Atlantic along 72W, with a 1010 mb surface low near 25N72W, and is supported by a deep layered upper trough. This pattern will generally persist through Thu as the low pressure gradually moves N then NE and exits the region. Expect areas of showers and thunderstorms over the waters E of 68W in the eastern Caribbean and S of 12N in the SW Caribbean through Tue night. Below normal winds and seas will persist through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp and deep layered upper trough is across the western Atlantic along about 70W, and is digging southward across Hispaniola and the central Caribbean. This feature has produced a 1010 mb low pressure center near 25N72W, with elongated troughing extending from Hispaniola through the trough to near 29N72W. Fresh SE surface winds to the east of the surface trough to 60W are interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered moderate to strong convection from 20N to 28N between 63W and 71W. Fresh to strong SE to E winds are assumed to be occurring across the E and NE semicircles of the low center, and extends to 60W, where seas are 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, a 1031 mb Azores high extends SW to near 30N70W and is producing moderate to locally fresh winds across the remainder of the Atlantic S of 30N between 30W and 60W, where seas are 6-9 ft. To the east of 30W, fresh to locally strong NE winds are from 14N to 18N, and fresh elsewhere, with seas of 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic low pressure near 25N72W will move slowly N through Tue, then interact with a cold front approaching from the NW, and exit the region to the NE Tue night through Wed. Strong SE to S winds and rough seas will prevail east of the low to 65W, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front and possible low pressure may move offshore NE Florida and impact the far NW waters Thu through Fri. $$ Stripling