000 AXNT20 KNHC 220602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon May 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in Panama, Colombia and Venezuela: A pronounced upper level trough extends southwestward, from Hispaniola into northern Colombia. The upper level trough has been interacting with the monsoon trough that is in Panama and northwestern Colombia. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 05N to 10N between 70W and 75W. Scattered strong is in Venezuela from 06N to 09N between 62W and 65W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 03N to 12N in Venezuela and Colombia, and in the coastal waters of those countries. More cloudiness and other possible rainshowers are in the remainder of the area that is to the south of 17N62W 15N70W to NE Nicaragua. This trend will continue through at least Monday. Please, refer to the latest forecasts from your local meteorological agencies for more information. Volcanic Ash from Popocatepetl: The Popocatepetl Volcano continues in a state of unrest. Volcanic ash is expected to reach the SW Gulf of Mexico waters mainly from 25N southward and from 94W westward. It is possible that some of the ash may be reaching the surface, which may reduce the visibilities for marine operations. Mariners should exercise caution. Any mariner, who encounters volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, is encouraged to report this observation to the National Hurricane Center, by calling 001-305-229-4424. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 12N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 05N to 07N between 36W and 38W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 07N southward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 08N20W 06N25W 05N33W. Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 10N to 16N between 50W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about possible volcanic ash in the southwestern corner of the area. A cold front extends from a south central Georgia 1012 mb low pressure center, to 27N90W and 27N92W in the Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating cold front continues from 27N92W, to NE Mexico just to the south of the border with Texas. A surface trough extends from the 1012 mb low pressure center to SW Florida. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 25N northward between 75W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Similar clouds and precipitation are from 26N northward from 85W westward, and in the SW corner of the area. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the SW corner of the area. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot elsewhere. Gentle to moderate N to NE wind speeds span the entire area. Several weak cold fronts will move into and dissipate in the far northern Gulf of Mexico early this week, but overall weak high pressure will dominate. This pattern will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas. A modest cold front will move S through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wed, bringing gentle to moderate NE winds to the basin. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has had several large eruptions in the past day and eruptions continue. Ash has moved ENE away from the volcano and into parts of the SW Gulf of Mexico, S of 22N and W of 93W. The visibility may be restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall through Mon morning. Mariners should exercise caution. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about heavy rainfall in parts of Colombia, Panama, and Venezuela, during the next few days. Upper level cyclonic wind flow from a trough covers the area from 76W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is on the western side of the cyclonic wind flow, from 13N northward between 70W and NE Nicaragua/ E Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N northward from Puerto Rico westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 80W eastward, and from 1 foot to 2 feet from 80W westward. Moderate and fresh E to SE winds are from 70W eastward. Gentle NE winds are in the central one-third of the area, and in much of the Caribbean Sea from 80W westward. Moderate NE winds are in the Yucatan Channel. Elongated low pressure prevails across the Atlantic along 72W tonight, and is disrupting the normal pressure gradient over the basin. This is leading to mainly gentle winds across the basin, except for moderate E to SE winds to the east of 68W. This pattern generally will persist through Thu as the low pressure gradually moves N then NE and exits the region. Expect areas of showers and thunderstorms in the waters E of 69W in the eastern Caribbean and S of 12N in the SW Caribbean through early this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 25N71W. A surface trough passes through the low pressure, and it is along 29N74W, to north central coastal Puerto Rico. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 16N in the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 75W. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 16N northward between 59W and the surface trough. Gentle to moderate NE winds are on the western side of the surface trough and low pressure center. The environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable later today. Tropical development of this system is not expected, as it moves generally north-northeastward in the SW Atlantic Ocean from 5 knots to 10 knots during the next couple of days. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 20N to 27N between 60W and 65W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from 60W westward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 15N northward between 30W and 60W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from 60W eastward. Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 60W eastward. Strong easterly winds are from 21N to 27N between 43W and 53W, and strong NE winds are from 14N to 18N between 21W and 26W. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 59W eastward. Low pressure 1010 mb near 25N71.5W will drift slowly N through Tue, then interact with a cold front approaching from the NW, and exit the region to the NE Tue night through Wed. Strong SE to S winds and rough seas will prevail east of the low to 65W, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front and possible low pressure may move offshore Florida and impact far NW waters late this week. $$ mt