000 AXNT20 KNHC 212254 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon May 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in Panama, Colombia and Venezuela: A pronounced upper-level trough extends southwestward from Hispaniola across the Caribbean Sea into northern Colombia. It has been interacting with the monsoon trough over Panama and northwest Colombia to trigger widespread deep convection across Panama, northern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela, and adjacent Caribbean waters. This trend will continue through at least Monday. Please, refer to the latest forecasts from your local meteorological agencies for more information. Volcanic Ash from Popocatepetl: The Popocatepetl Volcano continues in a state of unrest, producing volcanic ash that is expected to reach the SW Gulf of Mexico waters mainly S of 25N and W of 94W. Some of this ash may be reaching the surface, which could produce reduced visibilities for marine operations. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris...you are encouraged to report this observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 001-305-229-4424. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 16W and S of 13N, moving westward about 10 kt. Much drier air at the lower level is limited shower coverage. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 12N southward, moving westward about 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 08N19W to 07N33W, then resumes from 05N37W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 22W-31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer the Special Features section above for information on possible volcanic ash in the southwestern Gulf waters. A weak cold front extends across the northern Gulf waters from 30N85W to 26N97W. Scattered showers are occurring along and north of this boundary. A surface trough is analyzed across the eastern Bay of Campeche with no convection at this time. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across the entire basin. For the forecast, several weak cold fronts will move into and dissipate over the far northern Gulf of Mexico early this week, but overall weak high pressure will dominate. This will lead to light to gentle winds and slight seas. A slightly stronger front will move through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wed, bringing gentle to moderate NE winds to the basin. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W has had several large eruptions in the past day and eruptions continue. Ash has moved ENE away from the volcano and over portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico, S of 22N and W of 94W. Visibility may be restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall through at least tonight. Mariners should exercise caution. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section on heavy rainfall across Panama and parts of Colombia and Venezuela. An upper level low/trough N of Hispaniola combined with a surface trough/low is enhancing scattered moderate convection over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, including the Mona Passage. Moderate E to SE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident over the eastern basin. Gentle to ENE to ESE trades with 2 to 4 ft seas are found at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, with low pressure north of the area, the normal pressure gradient has been disrupted over the basin, leading to mainly gentle winds across the basin. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will prevail over waters E of 69W in the eastern Caribbean and S of 12N in the SW Caribbean early this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad low centered near 24N71W is producing a large area of disturbed weather, extending a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable later today and tropical development of this system is not expected as it moves generally north-northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic at 5 to 10 kt during the next couple of days. Scattered moderate convection prevails with this feature between 60W-72W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present just east of the low from 21N to 26N between 66W and 70W. Moderate to fresh NE to ESE trades with 6 to 7 ft seas are noted north of 16N between 35W and 73W. Farther west, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in moderate easterly swell exist north of 20N between 73W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas at 5 to 6 ft are present from 05N to 16N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell dominate north of 11N between the Africa coast and 35W. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of northerly and southerly swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the low will drift N over the next couple of days before meeting a cold front and lifting NE and away from the area by mid-week. Strong SE to S winds and rough seas will from east of this low pressure early this week, along with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front and possible low pressure may move offshore Florida and impact far NW waters late this week. $$ ERA