000 AXNT20 KNHC 202301 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in W Colombia and E Panama: A deepening upper-level trough across the Caribbean is interacting with the Colombian/Panamanian low and the monsoon trough. This results in a large area of deep convection just south of Panama and also affecting western Colombia. These conditions will continue over the weekend. It will also lead to the potential for heavy rainfall across this area through early Mon, then will shift eastward across the remainder of Colombia and Venezuela Mon through early Tue. Please refer to the latest forecast products from your local or national meteorological service for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 12W, S of 14N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the coastal waters of Africa N of 02N and E of 18W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W, S of 13N and moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-08N between 28W-31W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and extends to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N27W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, no convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the western Gulf waters mainly W of 95W. Light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through early next week, inducing light to gentle winds and slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night W of the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds ahead of it. A weak trough will sink into the northern Gulf Mon, and gradually produce gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the entire basin by Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft over the Bahamas is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and some of these showers are affecting the waters south of Hispaniola. A few thunderstorms are also impacting the nearshore waters near the Panama and Colombia border. A dry airmass is suppressing the storm activity in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The extensive subtropical ridge northeast of the Greater Antilles supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds across the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the basin will lead to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas over the east and central Caribbean into early next week as an inverted surface trough develops N of the area along 71W and slowly lifts northward. Showers and thunderstorms will impact waters near the coasts of South America and Panama as well as Caribbean waters E of 68W through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed over southern Bahamas along 72W. This trough is the reflection of upper level trough aloft producing a large area of scattered moderate convection between 65W-74W. To the west, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N64W to 31N61W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that is positioned north of the Azores and maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted over the vast majority of the basin, especially east of 70W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent west of 70W. For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue near and E of the trough axis over the W Atlantic through Wed night. Another trough may move off the SE US coast and impact far NW waters late next week. $$ ERA