000 AXNT20 KNHC 191734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri May 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Colombia and eastern Panama Excessive Rainfall: A deepening upper-level trough across the Caribbean is forecast to interact with the Colombian/Panamanian low and the monsoon trough to bring enhanced moisture to western sections of Colombia and eastern Panama over the weekend. This pattern will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall across this area beginning tonight and lasting through early Mon. These rains could lead to moderate flooding in the area. Please read the latest forecast products from your local or national meteorological service for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W south of 12N moving W at 5-10 kt. A few showers are near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and extends to 10N21W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 04.5N26W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted N of 01N between 03W and 08W likely associated with the next tropical wave. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection covers the waters from 03N to 10N E of 17W to the coast of W Africa. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01.5N to 06N between 30W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters, with a 1016 mb high center located 27N94W. A surface trough is analyzed over the western Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is producing a weak pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico with light and variable winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. N winds are locally moderate within 60 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of a surface trough centered inland. Seas there are 3 ft. Hazy skies prevail across most of the Bay of Campeche due to smoke from ongoing agricultural fires across Mexico and Central America. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico into early next week, inducing light to gentle winds and slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night W of the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds ahead of it. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh winds across the south- central Caribbean, particularly from the ABC Islands to along the coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in these areas, with locally 7 to 8 ft seas offshore of Colombia. Elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean gentle to moderate trades prevail. In the NW Caribbean, winds are light with seas of 1-3 ft. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. The San Juan Doppler Radar confirms the presence of this shower activity over Puerto Rico and regional waters. For the forecast, a very modest pressure gradient across the basin will lead to continued moderate trades and slight to moderate seas over the east and central Caribbean, except fresh to locally strong trades S of 14N through early Sat. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the NW Caribbean. Winds will then weaken across the basin Sun through Tue as an inverted surface trough develops N of the area along about 70W-71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed E of Florida and runs from 31N79W to 25N80W. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the trough. An area of showers and thunderstorms is also affecting most of the Bahamas and regional waters. This weather is supported by an upper-level trough with axis just E of Florida. A cold front is moving across N Florida. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are ahead of the trough, higher within the convective activity. Farther E, another surface trough extends from 30N60W to 23N63W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of this trough covering mainly the waters N of 22N E of the trough to about 55W. A ridge is between the above mentioned troughs producing fresh easterly winds N of 30N between 60W and 68W based on scatterometer data. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1038 mb Azores High. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail north of 20N and east of 50W, with moderate trades south of 20N across the basin. Seas are 6-9 ft N of 20N and E of 50W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere E of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge is centered on the Azores high along 25W and extends SW to near a surface trough along 61W. The trough will weaken and shift NE through Sat and allow high pressure across the NW Atlantic to build modestly southward across the regional waters through the weekend. An inverted trough is expected to develop along 71W Sun and drift NE early next week. Active weather is expected near and E of the trough through Mon. Moderate NE and E swell will mix across the regional waters Sat night through Mon. $$ GR