000 AXNT20 KNHC 191044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri May 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from the equator to 11N. The tropical wave has moved very little overnight. Scattered moderate convection is observed by satellite from 05.5N to 11N between 19W and 25W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and extends to 10N20W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 04.5N25W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W. Numerous strong convection across western Africa extends to 120 nm offshore of the coast between 07W and 14W. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with the ITCZ is from 02N to 06N between 26W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... The latest scatterometer pass from 0210 UTC and recent surface observations indicate a 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 27N83.5W, just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. A second 1015 mb high is across the NW Gulf near 27N94W. The associated weak ridging is separated by a surface trough extending from the Yucatan Peninsula to near 27.5N87W. This pattern is producing a weak pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico and quiescent conditions of light and variable winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. N winds are locally moderate within 60 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of a surface trough centered inland. Seas there are 3 ft. Hazy skies prevail across most of the Bay of Campeche due to smoke from ongoing agricultural fires across Mexico and Central America. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend, inducing light to gentle winds and slight seas. A diurnal trough will develop each late afternoon across the Yucatan Peninsula and move offshore each night W of the Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds ahead of it. CARIBBEAN SEA... Overnight scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate trades prevailing across the eastern, central, and southwest Caribbean, and fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean from the A-B-C Islands to along the coast of Colombia. Seas are 3-6 ft in these areas, with locally 7-8 ft seas offshore of Colombia. In the NW Caribbean, winds are light with seas of 1-3 ft. No significant convection is noted across the basin this morning. For the forecast, A very modest pressure gradient across the basin will lead to continued moderate trades and slight to moderate seas over the east and central Caribbean, except fresh to locally strong trades S of 14N through early Sat. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the NW Caribbean. Winds will then weaken across the basin Sun through Tue as an inverted surface trough develops N of the area along about 70W-71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is just N of the area this morning from 33N60W to new 1013 mb low pressure along the Georgia coast near 31.5N80W. Strong to gale force easterly winds are within 240 nm N of the front this morning, and a Gale Warning is in effect just north of 31N. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the NWS Ocean Prediction Center for more information. South of the front and low, gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail W of 60W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NE swell to the N of 30N, and generally 2-3 ft elsewhere W of 60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen across most of the waters of the Bahamas between 73W and 79W. Short lines of similar convection is also occurring from 27N to offshore of North Carolina, between 77W and 80W. This weather is supported by an upper level trough across the eastern Gulf of Mexico that is moving eastward into the Florida Peninsula this morning. This weather will shift mostly N of the area by afternoon. A surface trough extends from 24N62W to 31N58W. Scattered moderate convection is across the waters from 23N to beyond 31N, between the trough and 56W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1038 mb Azores High. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail north of 20N and east of 50W, with moderate trades south of 20N across the basin. Seas are 6-9 ft N of 20N and E of 50W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere E of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the NW Atlantic and to the N of the front will build modestly southward across the regional waters through the weekend as the surface trough passing through 60W this morning shifts NE and weakens. The upper trough across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move into the W Atlantic over the weekend and dig southward into eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, and induce very active weather there. An associated inverted trough is expected to develop from Hispaniola northward along 71W Sun, and drift N-NE into early next week. Active weather is expected near and E of the trough through Mon.Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds are expected between the trough and 55W Mon through Tue. Moderate NE and E swell will mix across the regional waters Sat night through Mon. $$ Stripling