298 
AXNT20 KNHC 190451
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from 
the equator to 11N. The tropical wave is nearly stationary. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite from 05N 
to 10N between 21W and 26W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends to 10N20W. The ITCZ is 
analyzed from 05N25W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection associated with the ITCZ is from 
03N to 07N between 34W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The latest scatterometer pass from 0210 UTC and the 0300 UTC 
surface observations indicate a 1016 mb high pressure is 
centered near 27N84W, just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. Weak 
ridging and a weak pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico 
is supporting quiescent conditions of light and variable winds 
and 1 to 3 ft seas. N winds are locally moderate within 60 nm of 
the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of a surface trough 
centered inland.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of 
Mexico through the weekend, inducing light to gentle winds and 
slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night W of 
the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds ahead of it. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate trades 
prevailing across the eastern, central, and southwest Caribbean, 
pulsing to locally fresh in the south-central Caribbean off the 
coast of Colombia. Seas are 3-6 ft in these areas, with locally 
7 ft seas in the area of pulsing fresh winds. In the NW 
Caribbean, winds are light with seas of 1-3 ft. 

For the forecast, a very modest pressure gradient over the basin 
will lead to continued gentle to moderate trades and slight to 
moderate seas over the east and central Caribbean with light to 
gentle winds and slight seas in the NW Caribbean tonight. Fresh 
to locally strong NE to E winds will develop by Fri morning and 
prevail through Sat in the south-central Caribbean, including 
the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will then weaken across the basin 
Sun and Mon as an inverted surface trough develops N of the area 
along 70W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from Cape Canaveral, Florida, to 
31N79W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of this feature. 
Of note, a Gale Warning is in effect just north of 31N; please 
see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the NWS Ocean 
Prediction Center for more information.  Gentle trades in the W 
Atlantic west of 50W become gentle S winds near the surface 
trough. Seas are 1-3 ft west of 65W. 

Another surface trough extends from 22N62W to 31N60W, with 
scattered showers in the vicinity. High pressure dominates the 
remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a strong Azores 
High. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail north of 20N and 
east of 50W, with gentle to moderate trades south of 20N across 
the basin. Seas are 6-9 ft N of 20N and E of 40W, and 4-6 ft 
elsewhere E of 65W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure to the N of the area 
will build modestly southward across the regional waters tonight 
through the weekend. An inverted trough is expected to develop 
along 70W Sun night and drift E early next week. Moderate N and 
E swell will move into the regional waters Sat night through Mon.

$$
Mahoney