993 
AXNT20 KNHC 190422 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 19 2023

Corrected the date in the product heading

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W, south 
of 11N and moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 03N to 09N and between 20W and 25W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 04N24W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N24W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 13W and 20W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 
25W and 40W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough extends across the NE Gulf with scattered
showers within 90 nm south of the trough. A weak pressure gradient
prevails across the Gulf waters, with light to gentle winds
prevailing. Seas of 1-2 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of 
Mexico through the weekend, inducing light to gentle winds and 
slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night W of 
the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate winds ahead of it. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern
Caribbean, with light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean.
Seas of 3-5 ft are over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 1-2
ft over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, a very modest pressure gradient over the basin 
will lead to continued gentle to moderate trades and slight to 
moderate seas over the east and central Caribbean with light to 
gentle winds and slight seas in the NW Caribbean into tonight. 
Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop by Fri morning 
and prevail through Sat in the south-central Caribbean, including 
the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will then weaken across the basin Sun
and Mon as an inverted surface trough develops N of the area 
along 70W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N62W to 28N68W. Isolated showers
are in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the
remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by 1038 mb 
high pressure centered near 44W26W. Moderate to fresh winds 
prevail N of 20N and E of 40W. Gentle to moderate winds are 
elsewhere E of 60W. Light to gentle winds are noted W of 60W. Seas
are in the 6-8 ft range N of 20N and E of 40W, with seas of 4-6 
ft elsewhere E of 60W. W of 60W, seas of 2-4 ft prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge is
centered on the Azores high along 28W and extends SW to near 
25N65W. High pressure to the N of the area will build modestly 
across the regional waters tonight through the weekend. An 
inverted trough is expected to develop along 70W Sun night and 
drift E early next week.

$$
AL/Mahoney