000 AXNT20 KNHC 181630 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu May 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1625 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W, south of 11N and moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N and between 21W and 25W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 04N26W. The ITCZ extends from 04N26W to 04N39W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present east of 21W and south of 11N. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ between 26W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W to 24N93W. A few showers are noted north of 26N and between 85W and 89W. No deep convection is seen in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The weak pressure regime that dominates the region promotes light to gentle winds and seas of 1-2 ft. For the forecast, a weak cold front over the northern Gulf has dissipated this morning, leaving high pressure to dominate Gulf weather through the weekend. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast near and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, increasing to moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The strong subtropical ridge north of the Azores extends weakly southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, while light to gentle winds prevail in the rest of the basin. Seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the central and eastern Caribbean, while 1-3 ft are prevalent elsewhere. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off northern Colombia. No deep convection is noted in the Caribbean. For the forecast, a very modest pressure gradient over the basin will lead to continued gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas over the east and central Caribbean with light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will develop Thu night through Sat in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will then weaken across the basin Sun and Mon as an inverted surface trough develops N of the area along 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The dominant feature in the tropical Atlantic is the extensive 1037 mb subtropical ridge located just north of the Azores. Divergence aloft in the western Atlantic supports a few showers in the eastern Bahamas and nearby waters, while similar convection is found off NE Florida and south of Bermuda. No deep convection is occurring in the rest of the basin. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central and eastern Atlantic. Latest satellite- derived wind data captured the strongest winds north of 20N and east of 40W. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail east of 55W, with the highest seas being present near 23N33W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge is centered on the Azores high along 28W and extends SW to near 25N65W. High pressure to the N of the area will build modestly across the regional waters Thu night through the weekend. An inverted trough is expected to develop along 70W by early Mon and drift E. $$ DELGADO