000 AXNT20 KNHC 132308 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W to 07.5N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N25W to 05.5N44W to 03N50W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted south of 08N to the equator between 12W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Widespread convection continues this afternoon across the NW Gulf. A line of strong thunderstorms persists along the leading edge of an eastward moving outflow boundary, that extends from the Texas coast at 29N95W to 25N95.5W to 22N97W. These thunderstorms are producing frequent lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and strong gusty winds. This active weather will likely continue along the south end of the outflow boundary through the evening hours. Afternoon surface observations show moderate to fresh ESE winds over all but the NE part of the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft and likely higher across NW portions near and ahead of the convection, and 4 to 4 ft, except in the NE Gulf, where gentle to moderate E winds are observed with 2 to 4 ft seas. Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the western Gulf roughly W of 92W. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke over this region of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations in the NW Gulf also indicate the presence of haze. For the forecast, the Bermuda high extends a ridge westward into the SE U.S. this afternoon, and will remain in place through Sun before weakening considerably Sun night and Mon. Slight to moderate seas will prevail, remaining 7 to 8 ft in the NW Gulf through Sun under the persistent ESE wind flow. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Winds will veer to the E across most of the basin by late Sun into Mon as new high pressure settles over the northern Gulf, and then diminish further Tue and Wed and the high sinks to along 26N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a subtropical high-pressure ridge along 33N and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean supports moderate to fresh E winds across most of the basin, except in the lee of Cuba, where winds are gentle to locally moderate. Late morning scatterometer data showed fresh to strong ENE winds within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W, where seas have built to 10 ft. Fresh winds are also observed in the Gulf of Honduras, with seas up to 7 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the far NW Gulf, and has been most dense across the Gulf of Honduras where the latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke, and visibilities likely less than 5 nm. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean through tonight then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Mon, as the ridge to the north weakens. Fresh to strong E winds are also forecast in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sun night with seas building to 8 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Mon and continue through the remainder forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N48W to 26N60W to the southern Bahamas and Cuba's N coast near 77W. Very active convection continues near the front to the W of 71W this evening as an upper level low across the eastern Gulf of Mexico is creating very unstable atmospheric conditions across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are N of the front to 27N and W of 66W, and continue to fuel the ongoing convection. A surface trough has developed across this area, from 28N73W to 21N76W, and the stronger thunderstorms are now within 120 nm E of this trough. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft E of the Bahamas and 3 to 5 ft to the W of the Bahamas. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between high pressure near the Azores and lower pressure over north Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas N of 24N and E of 28W, including the Canary Islands. 6 to 8 ft seas in N swell have propagated out to 40W, remaining north of 20N. In the tropics, south of 20N, winds are generally moderate from the NE with 5-6 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will begin to drift N and dissipate through Sun. High pressure building over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front will shift E of the forecast area late on Sun, and yield weakening winds across the area through Wed. A cold front is forecast to reach the northern waters late Wed. $$ Stripling