000
AXNT20 KNHC 131749
TWDAT 


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 
07N24W. The ITCZ continues from 07N24W to 04N35W and to 05N47W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ axis between 20W and 45W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted south of the axis from the 
equator to 08N between 10W and 24W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A line of thunderstorms from an outflow boundary has entered the 
western Gulf between 29N and 21N, moving ESE. Thunderstorms 
contain frequent lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and strong 
gusty winds. Recent surface observations reveal moderate to 
fresh ESE winds over most of the Gulf of Mexico basin, where 
seas are 5 to 7 ft. The exception is the NE Gulf, where gentle 
to moderate E winds are observed with 2 to 4 ft seas.  

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the 
western Gulf roughly W of 92W. The latest SAB analysis indicated 
a medium concentration of smoke over this region of the Gulf, 
including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations in the NW Gulf
also indicate the presence of haze.

For the forecast, winds in the western gulf will strengthen 
today with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds 
will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. 
Winds will veer to the E across most of the basin by late Sun into
Mon as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf. Slight to 
moderate seas will prevail, reaching 7 or 8 ft in the NW Gulf 
through Sun under a persistent SE wind flow. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between a subtropical high-pressure ridge and lower 
pressure over the SW Caribbean supports moderate to fresh E 
winds across most of the basin, except in the lee of Cuba, where
winds are gentle to locally moderate. A recent scatterometer 
pass observed fresh to strong ENE winds within 90 nm of the 
coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W, where seas have built to 
10 ft. Fresh winds are also observed in the Gulf of Honduras, 
with seas up to 6 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the far NW 
Gulf, and has been most dense across the Gulf of Honduras where
the latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of 
smoke.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean through 
tonight then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through 
Mon. Fresh to strong E winds are also forecast in the Gulf of 
Honduras at night through Sun night with seas building to 8 ft. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the central and 
eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Mon 
and continue through the remainder forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N49W to 28N53W, becoming stationary 
to the southern Bahamas and Cuba's NW coast. Recent scatterometer
data reveals moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the wake of 
the front across the offshore waters E of the Bahamas and to the 
north of the Greater Antilles and the Florida Straits. Seas are 4 
to 6 ft between the waters E of the Bahamas and 65W, and mainly 3 
ft or below elsewhere in the wake of the front. Regarding 
convection, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near
the tail end of the front over the Bahamas and Cuba, as indicated
by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. Strong to gusty winds are 
likely occurring within this area of convection between the 
central Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the Straits of 
Florida. 

In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between high pressure near 
the Azores and lower pressure over north Africa supports fresh 
to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas N of 24N and E of 30W, 
including the Canary Islands. 6 to 8 ft seas in N swell have 
propagated out to 40W, remaining north of 20N. In the tropics, 
south of 20N, winds are generally moderate from the NE with 5-6 
ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will 
dissipate today while the cold front will stall and weaken. 
High pressure building over the western Atlantic in the wake of 
the front will shift E of the forecast area on Sun. A cold front
is forecast to reach the northern waters early next week.

$$
Mora