000
AXNT20 KNHC 120525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast just
north of Conakry, then reaches southwestward to 04N19W. Numerous
to scattered heavy showers are seen south of the trough from 02N
to 07N between the Liberia coast and 19W. An ITCZ continues 
westward from 04N19W to 03N35W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted up to 110 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle
to near Tampico, Mexico. A thermal trough at the eastern Bay of
Campeche is inducing fresh to locally strong E to ESE winds and 5
to 7 ft seas near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle
to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at
the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Moderate with locally
fresh ESE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters for the next several days, producing gentle to moderate E 
to SE winds east of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow west of
90W. Winds are forecast to become fresh to strong over the western
Gulf Fri night into Sat with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to 
locally strong E to ESE winds will pulse near and northwest of 
the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night. By late Sun, 
winds are forecast to veer to the E across much of the Gulf as 
high pressure settles over the northern Gulf. Slight to moderate 
seas will prevail, except for rough seas at the northwestern Gulf
by Sun caused by a persisting SE wind flow.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of a cold front near central Cuba is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters just 
south of Cuba. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge north of the basin
near 22N supports a fair trade-wind pattern for much of the basin.
Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found at
the south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present at
the north-central basin. Fresh with locally strong ESE winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft exist at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate ENE to ESE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere 
in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh ENE to ESE winds along with rough seas at
the Gulf of Honduras and south-central basin, including the Gulf 
of Venezuela will pulse to strong at night through Sat night. 
Fresh NE to E winds may briefly develop in the lee of southern 
Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri night. Afterward, winds should 
diminish to between gentle and moderate basin-wide Mon through Tue
night.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N55W and the central Bahamas to near central Cuba. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near
and up to 150 nm south and southeast of this boundary, including
the southeast Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Two surface troughs
embedded within the NE trades are triggering scattered moderate
convection from 03N to 07N between 36W and the French Guiana-
Brazil coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate northeasterly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are
present near and behind the cold front between 55W and the Florida
coast/central Bahamas. To the south, light to gentle winds with 3
to 5 ft seas are noted from 18N to the cold front between 45W and
the southeast Bahamas/Virgin Islands. Farther east, gentle to
moderate NE to ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate ENE 
swell exist north of 20N between 25W and 45W/55W. Near the Canary 
Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE trades 
and seas at 7 to 10 ft are evident north of 22N between the 
Morrocco-Sahara coast and 25W. To the south and southwest, gentle 
to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate from 
06N to 18N/20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser 
Antilles/northeastern South America coast. Light to gentle winds 
with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed northerly and southerly swell prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become stationary
from near 27N55W to near the southeast Bahamas by Fri morning. It
will then persist on Sat and dissipate across the waters W of 60W
on Sun. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will follow the 
front with seas briefly building to 8 ft north of 25N between 55W 
and 65W on Fri. Otherwise, easterly winds will freshen east of the
Bahamas and in the Great Bahama Bank Fri night into Sat night as 
high pressure off the Carolinas strengthens. This high will shift 
southeastward into the waters southeast of Bermuda on Sun, 
producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds. 

$$

Forecaster Chan