000
AXNT20 KNHC 090546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Wind Warning from 35W eastward:

Meteo-France has issued Gale Warning for the marine zone, 
CANARIAS near the Canary Islands. Please, refer to the Meteo- 
France High Seas Forecast at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of a monsoon trough extends through the northern 
Senegal coast just south of Dakar to near 12.5N19W. No significant
convection is observed near this feature. An ITCZ stretches 
westward from west of Liberia at 06N15W across 03N30W to east of 
Amapa State, Brazil near 04N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed near the ITCZ from the Equator to 
07N between the Sierra Leone coast/13W and 24W. Scattered moderate
convection is present near and up to 100 nm north of the rest of 
the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1018 mb high
just north of Tampa, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. A surface
trough is triggering scattered showers across the northwestern
Gulf. In addition, thick cirrus originated from widespread 
convection over eastern Mexico are seen across the western Gulf. 
A thermal trough entering the eastern Bay of Campeche is causing 
fresh to strong NE to E winds and 5 to 6 ft seas across the 
eastern Bay of Campeche and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are found at the 
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and seas
of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist over the Gulf 
through the end of the week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will pulse at the eastern Bay of Campeche and northwest of the 
Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds will prevail east of 90W, while moderate to fresh 
return flow is expected west of 90W. Slight to moderate seas are 
anticipated across the Gulf through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern end of a surface trough is producing isolated
thunderstorms near the waters of southeastern Cuba. Tight 
gradient between the subtropical ridge near 27N and lower 
pressure over northwest Colombia is supporting fresh to locally 
strong easterly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas at the south-central and
southeastern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft are present at the northeastern and north-central basin. Gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere
in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected in the south-central and portions of the 
southeast basin through Wed night. Moderate to fresh E to SE 
winds will strengthen to between fresh and strong in the Gulf of 
Honduras Wed night through Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for a Gale Warning issued by
Meteo-France.

A modest stationary front curves southwestward from southwest of 
the Azores across 31N40W to 26N52W. Widely scattered showers are
present up to 100 nm along either side of this boundary. A series
of surface troughs embedded within the trades are generating
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
central and southeast Bahamas, and northeast of the Virgin Islands
from 20N to 24N between 54W and 64W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin.

An Atlantic Ridge stretching west-southwestward from a 1031 mb 
Azores High across 31N33W to the east coast of central Florida.
This feature is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft in moderate northerly swell, north of 25N between 40W and
75W. To the south, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE trades and seas
at 4 to 6 ft are found from 20N to 25N between 40W and 70W. West
of both areas, gentle to moderate SE to S winds with 4 to 6 ft 
seas are evident north of 20N between 70W/75W and the Florida- 
Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong with 
locally near-gale to gale NNE trades and 8 to 11 ft seas are 
found north of 27N between the Morrocco-Sahara coast and 25W. 
Farther west, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and 
seas at 7 to 9 ft in large NE swell exist north of 27N between 25W
and 40W. South of both areas, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades 
and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate NE swell are noted from 14N to 27N 
between the central African coast and 40W. Farther west, moderate 
to fresh NE to ENE trades with 6 to 8 ft seas are evident from 04N
to 14N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed light to gentle northerly and 
southerly swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the U.S.
Mid-Atlantic coast on Tue. The front will reach the northeast 
Florida offshore waters Wed morning and then extend from near 
31N68W to the northwest Bahamas Thu morning, before weakening 
between 55W and 65W Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds 
will precede and follow the front as it moves across the region. 

$$

Forecaster Chan