784 AXNT20 KNHC 081800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon May 08 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-Force Wind Warning from 35W eastward: The marine forecast from the Meteo-France consists of a warning for N-to-NE gale-force winds, in the marine zone CANARIAS, from 08/1500 UTC until 09/1200 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W, along 05N18W 05N24W 03N33W 04N45W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 02N to 05N between 18W and 23W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area, from the NE corner into the SW corner. A 1021 mb high pressure center is at the coast of Florida near 29.5N81W. The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb shows a trough from Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that a weak trough is in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, from the Florida Panhandle into the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. MVFR-to-VFR conditions are in the coastal plains of the U.S.A. Gulf coast states, from Texas to the Florida Big Bend. Expect moderate to locally fresh return flow, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, in the entire area. Hazy conditions, and areas of smoke from agricultural fires, may be covering parts of the coastal waters of the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and in interior sections of Central America from NE Nicaragua to southern Mexico. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night morning hours through Fri night. Otherwise, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf will prevail through the forecast period, allowing for generally gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W. Slight to moderate seas are expected basin-wide through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean dissipating stationary front passes through 24N60W to 23N77W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N southward from 60W westward, possibly reaching the Atlantic Ocean sides of the Greater Antilles. A SW North Atlantic Ocean surface ridge extends to the parts of the northern half of the Caribbean Sea. Broad surface low pressure is in the northern parts of Colombia. This pattern continues to support fresh to strong trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 9 feet, in parts of the SE, the SW, and in the south central Caribbean Sea. The comparatively highest sea heights are near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that are reaching 4 feet, are elsewhere. An exception is for fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba. Hazy conditions, and areas of smoke from agricultural fires, may be covering interior sections of Central America from NE Nicaragua to southern Mexico. The 24-hour rainfall total, for the period that ended at 08/1200 UTC, is 0.37 in Kingston in Jamaica, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the south central and portions of the southeast Caribbean through Wed night. Winds will strengthen in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night and continue through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N40W 27N50W 24N60W. The front is dissipating stationary from 24N60W to 23N77W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is from 20N northward from 40W westward. Mostly fresh, to some strong NE winds, are to the south of the line 31N23W 26N33W 21N47W 20N60W. An exception is the strong to near gale-force winds that are from 27N northward from 23W eastward. Fresh winds are from the dissipating stationary front to 26N from 68W westward. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet, to the south and southeast of the line, from 31N23W, to 22N50W and southward. Some areas of sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet are elsewhere in this area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A surface ridge, that passes through 31N50W to 31N71W, to a NE Florida 1021 mb high pressure center, is on the northern side of the stationary front. A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that is near 35N22W, to 31N33W 29N38W 23N49W, to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh east winds across the Great Bahama Bank and E of the Bahamas to 65W will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds this evening. A weakening stationary front extending from 25N55W to the Turks and Caicos Islands offshore waters will dissipate this evening. A cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Tue. The front will reach the NE Florida offshore waters Wed morning and extend from near 31N68W to the northern Bahamas Thu morning before weakening over the far eastern part of the area Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds will precede and follow the front as it moves across the region. $$ mt/al