000 AXNT20 KNHC 080543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon May 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warnings E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for the forecast zones of Agadir off the coast of Morocco, and Canarias near the Canary Islands. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... Most of the monsoon trough remains over the Africa continent. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from southwest of Sierra Leone near 07N16W across 03N30W to north of Belem, Brazil at 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 110 nm north, and 80 nm south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaches southwestward from northern Florida to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and a thermal trough at the eastern Bay of Campeche is creating fresh to locally strong easterly winds, and 4 to 6 ft seas across the southern-central and southeastern Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and into the early morning hours through Fri night due to local effects related to the thermal trough. Otherwise, the surface ridge will persist through Fri which maintains mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. The exception will be fresh SE winds over the western Gulf through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively fair trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin, except isolated thunderstorms just south of Cuba near the Island of the Youths caused by convergent trades. Fresh to strong easterly trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found at the south- central basin, north of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh E to ESE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident at the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, tight pressure gradient exists between the high north of the area and lower pressure at northwest Colombia. This will support fresh to strong easterly trades, and moderate to rough seas in the south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela and portions of the southeastern basin through Wed night. Afterward, fresh winds are expected in these areas through Fri night. Moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to between fresh and strong Wed night through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to ESE winds will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends west-southwestward from the Azores across 31N41W and 25N56W to just east of the southeast Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm along either side of this boundary. A surface trough is producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central and southeast Bahamas. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near and north of the coast of Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and Amapa State, Brazil to 08N. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A 1023 mb Bermuda High along with the surface ridge extending southwestward to 23N52W, from a 1028 mb Azores High are supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell north of 21N between 37W and 70W. Farther west, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are seen north of 20N between 70W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong with locally near-gale to gale-force NNE trades and seas at 7 to 10 ft are present north of 26N between the Morocco-Sahara coast and 20W. To the west, gentle to moderate NE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell exist north of 21N between 20W and 37W. To the south, moderate to fresh NNE trades with 6 to 9 ft seas are noted from 14N to 26N between the central Africa coast and 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Farther west of the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are noted from 05N to 21N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong E winds south of 27N and west of 73W will diminish to moderate on Mon as high pressure centered off the southeastern U.S. shifts east-southeastward and weakens. The stationary front will weaken through Tue. A cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Tue, and reach the waters east of northern Florida early Wed. Then it will reach from near 31N62W to 27N67W, then continue as a stationary front to eastern Cuba by late Thu. The cold front will weaken between 55W and 65W Fri and Fri night. In its wake, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are expected for the weekend. $$ Forecaster Chan