000 AXNT20 KNHC 071750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun May 07 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-Force Wind Warning from 35W eastward: The marine forecast from the Meteo-France consists of a warning for northerly gale-force winds, in the marine zone AGADIR, continuing until 08/0300 UTC. Expect, also, gale-force NE winds, in the marine zone CANARIAS, from 07/1800 UTC until 08/0900 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N, to 05N17W 03N27W. The ITCZ continues from 03N27W 03N36W, to the Equator along 43W and along 47W. Precipitation: disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area, from the NE corner into the SW corner. The GFS model for 250 mb and for 500 mb shows a weak trough that is in the area of Texas from the middle Texas Gulf coast to east Texas. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong covers Texas in the area of the 250 mb-to-500 mb trough. Mostly MVFR conditions are in the coastal plains of the U.S.A. Gulf coast states, from the middle Texas Gulf coast to coastal Alabama. Fresh SE winds are from 28N southward from 90W westward. Gentle to moderate return flow covers the rest of the area. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the coastal waters of SE Louisiana, and 3 feet elsewhere from 90W eastward. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet in the coastal waters of the SW corner near 20N, and 4 feet elsewhere from 90W westward. Hazy conditions, and areas of smoke from agricultural fires, may be covering parts of the coastal waters of the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and in interior sections of Central America from NE Nicaragua to southern Mexico.ATL Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and into the early morning hours through Thu night due to local effects related to a thermal trough. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 24N60W to 22N71W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on the southern side of the front. Other isolated moderate is from 27N southward from 66W westward, including in the Bahamas. E to SE fresh winds are from 16N southward between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are in general, from 17N southward between 65W and 80W. Near gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, have been within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 76W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 70W eastward. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet from Nicaragua southward from 80W westward. The sea heights are ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The pressure difference between high pressure N of the area and lower pressure in NW Colombian will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. These winds will begin to pulse to fresh to strong at night starting Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N42W 28N50W 24N60W 22N71W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet to the north of the stationary front between 50W and 60W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 40W westward. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are from 20N northward from 66W westward. Some exceptions are: fresh to strong NE winds between 60W and 70W, within 180 nm to the north of the front and within 60 nm to the south of the front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm on the northern side of the front from 60W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on the southern side of the front. Other isolated moderate is from 27N southward from 66W westward, including in the Bahamas. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 33N74W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the northwest of the stationary front. The 24-hour rainfall total, for the period that ended at 07/1200 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, is 0.47 in Bermuda. Strong NE winds are from 24N to 29N from 70W westward. Fresh or slower wind speeds are elsewhere from 70W westward. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Africa from 19N to 26N, and within 240 nm to 330 nm of the coast of Africa from 26N northward. Strong NE winds are from 16N to 25N between 20W and 31W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 12N southward between 40W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere to the south of the line 30N21W 27N30W 20N41W 17N55W. Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 35N20W, to 31N28W 24N40W 19N61W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 05N to 28N from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 40W eastward. A surface trough along the east coast of Florida will drift westward across the peninsula today. High pressure building over the western Atlantic combined with the trough will support an area of fresh to locally strong E winds just east of central and south Florida and the NW Bahamas today. This area of winds will shift southward across the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by this evening. A stationary front extending from 26N55W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands will begin to slowly move E as a cold front today while weakening. A cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Tue, reach the forecast waters northeast of northern Florida early Wed, then reach from near 31N60W to 25N68W and continue as a stationary front to eastern Cuba by late Thu. The front will be followed by moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds. $$ mt/ja