000
AXNT20 KNHC 070000
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning:

The marine forecast from the Meteo-France consists of
a warning for northerly gale-force winds, in the marine
zone AGADIR, from 06/1500 UTC until 07/1200 UTC. Please,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is
on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes extends from the coast of Guinea to 
05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 05N30W to 02N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 08N between 20W and
46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb anchored over South Carolina extends a
ridge SW across the Gulf of Mexico and provides gentle to moderate
E to SE winds N of 23N. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are along
the coast and adjacent waters of the Yucatan Peninsula being
supported by a thermal trough. Winds are moderate to locally fresh
from the E across the remainder SW Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft
basin-wide. Otherwise, upper level diffluent flow support
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the offshore waters between
SE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near 
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the early 
morning hours through Thu night due to local effects related to a 
thermal trough. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the Gulf 
waters through the forecast period producing gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate 
to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging N of the area extends into the northern half of
the Caribbean and along low pressure in NW Colombia continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds across the SE, south-central
and portions of the SW basin. Seas within this area of strong
winds range between 7 to 9 ft. Fresh NE winds are in the Gulf of
Honduras with seas to 3 ft while the remainder NW basin enjoys a
light breeze. Moderate trade winds dominate the remainder
Caribbean with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range.

For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure N
of the area and lower pressure in NW Colombian will support fresh
to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, including 
the Gulf of Venezuela, through early next week. Moderate to fresh 
E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. These 
winds will begin to pulse to fresh to strong at night starting Wed
night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features above for information on an ongoing Gale
Warning for the region of Agadir, Africa. 

A surface trough extends across the north-central Bahamas and
support an area of fresh to strong E winds to the N and NE of the
trough. A cold front extends from 31N45W SW to near 26N55W where
it stalls and continue to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. NW 
swell associated with this front is producing seas to 9 ft N of
27N between 38W and 58W. The remainder central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the ridge of the
Azores High. Latest scatterometter data show fresh to strong N to
NE winds between the coast of NW Africa and both the Canary and
Cape verde Islands. Altimeter data show seas of 8 to 10 ft in the
aforementioned region. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds
and seas to 8 ft dominate the tropical Atlantic waters. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough across the north- 
central Bahamas will drift west-southward through Sun. The area 
of fresh to strong E winds to the N and NE of the trough will 
shift southward from the Bahamas to waters adjacent South Florida 
tonight through late Sun. The stationary front will transition to  
a cold front tonight into Sun while weakening. The NW swell over 
the far NE part of the area will shift out of the region by late 
tonight. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic in the
wake of the front through the early part of the upcoming week 
allowing for winds to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. A 
backdoor cold front may approach the waters offshore NE Florida 
Wed through Thu night, followed by moderate E winds. 

$$
Ramos