000 AXNT20 KNHC 061020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat May 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the forecast zone of Agadir near the coast of W Africa. The forecast calls for northerly gales to 40 kt from 06/1500 to 07/1200 UTC. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal near 13.5N17W and extends to near 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 04N35W to the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N51W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 25W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 25W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Carolinas extends a weak ridge SW to the central Gulf of Mexico while generally lower pressure dominates the Gulf waters W of 90W. A stationary front extends across SE Louisiana and the NE Gulf. Some convective activity is near the frontal boundary. This weather pattern is supporting gentle to moderate return flow across the basin, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds off the NW coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to a local trough. Seas are 1 to 3 ft E of 88W and 2 to 4 ft across the remainder of the basin, except to 5 ft near the NW coast of the Yucatan. Smoke from agricultural fires may be covering portions of the western Gulf. Latest NESDIS SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, where visibilities are likely 4-6 nm. Weather observations along the Mexican coast continue to indicate the presence of haze. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the early morning hours through Mon night due to local effects related to a thermal trough. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data reveal the presence of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Caribbean S of 16N between 64W and 78W, with the strongest winds to around 30 kt off the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela, where seas are 8 to 12 ft, highest near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail elsewhere E of 78W, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are W of 78W, with seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong easterly winds are noted with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers are thunderstorms have developed over northern Hispaniola and regional Atlantic waters ahead of a frontal boundary. Some shower activity is also noted N of Puerto Rico. Patches of low level moisture, with embedded showers, are moving from the Atlantic across the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through early next week. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extend across the north-central Bahamas from 23N77W to 28N77W. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure across the Carolinas has induced a zone of fresh E winds just E of the trough axis from 28N to 30N between 73W and 77W, based on a recent satellite scatterometer pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area of winds. A slowing cold front extends from 31N50W to 25N60W where it stalls and continues to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Some shower activity is noted along and ahead the front. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas 8 to 12 ft in NW swell are behind the front in the waters N of 29N W of the front to about 66W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds cover the waters elsewhere W of 70W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of ridge from a 1026 mb high pressure located south of the Azore Islands near 32N28W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over NW Africa is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds N of 14N and E of 30W, where seas are 8 to 11 ft per altimeter data. Elsewhere across the trade wind belt, fresh NE winds generally prevail S of 20N, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the trough across the Bahamas will drift W today, with a band of fresh to strong E winds to the N and NE of it shifting westward into the NW Bahamas and the central Florida coastal waters. The cold front will drift SE, reaching from 25N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W by this evening while weakening. NW swell with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range will follow the front N of 28N and E of 65W through late today. High pressure building over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front will bring a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate early next week. $$ GR