478 
AXNT20 KNHC 060452
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MeteoFrance has issued a gale warning for the adjacent waters of 
Agadir, Africa. Northerly gales to 40 kt are forecast from 06/1500
to 07/0000 UTC. For more information visit www.meteofrance.com

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal 
near 14N16.5W and extends to near 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from
06N23W to 04N38W, then resumes near 03N42W to the mouth of the
Amazon River near 00N51W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate 
to strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 08W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging anchored across the Carolinas extends a weak ridge
SW to the central Gulf of Mexico while generally lower pressure 
dominates the Gulf waters W of 90W. A stationary front extends
across SE Louisiana across the Chandelier Islands to near 28N85W.
Widely scattered clusters of moderate convection are noted N of
this boundary offshore of the Alabama and Florida coasts. This
pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate return flow 
across the basin, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds off 
the NW coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft E of 88W
and 2 to 4 ft across the remainder of the basin, except to 5 ft
near the NW coast of the Yucatan. Smoke from agricultural fires 
may be covering portions of the western Gulf. Latest NESDIS SAB 
analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the 
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, where visibilities
are likely 5-6 nm.


For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong 
winds along the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the 
early morning hours through Wed night due to local effects related
to a thermal trough. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate 
the Gulf waters through the forecast period producing gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, with the exception of 
moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf beginning on
Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the Caribbean S of 16N
between 62W and 78W, with the strongest winds to around 30 kt off
the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela, where seas are 8 to 10 
ft. Moderate to fresh E to ESE tradewinds prevail elsewhere E of
78W, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, while gentle to moderate E to NE 
winds are W of 78W, with seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft NW
portions. However, fresh to strong easterly winds are across the 
Gulf of Honduras to near 18N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure is centered across the
Carolinas tonight and will combine with the Colombian low to 
support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central 
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through early next 
week. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong across the Gulf of  
Honduras, mainly at night. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected
at night in the Windward Passage Sat night through Mon night. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extend from the central Bahamas near 23.5N77W to
28N76W. The pressure gradient between this trough and high
pressure across the Carolinas has induced a zone of fresh E winds
N of the trough, from 28N to 30N between 72W and 78W, based on
recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in this
area of winds. A slowing cold front extends from 31N52W to 26N61W
where it stalls and continues to near the Turks and Caicos 
Islands. Narrow bands of scattered moderate convection are along
and within 300 nm E of the front, to the N of 25N. Moderate to 
fresh winds and seas 6 to 9 ft in NW swell are behind the front in
the waters N of 26N to 70W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds 
cover the waters elsewhere W of 70W. The remainder central and 
eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of ridging 
from a 1028 mb Azores high. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressure over NW Africa is supporting fresh to 
locally strong NE winds N of 12N and E of 30W, where seas are 7 
to 10 ft. Elsewhere across the trade wind belt, fresh ENE winds 
generally prevail S of 20N, with seas of 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough across the central Bahamas 
will drift W through Sat, with a band of fresh to strong E winds 
to the N and NE of it shifting westward into the NW Bahamas and
the central Florida coastal waters. The cold front will drift SE,
reaching from 24N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W by 
Sat evening while weakening. NW swell with seas in the 8 to 10 ft 
range will follow the front N of 28N and E of 65W through Sat. 
Otherwise, high press will follow the front, and dominate most of 
region through early next week, producing a moderate to fresh 
anticyclonic flow. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate early
next week. 

$$
Stripling