000
AXNT20 KNHC 052355
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo France has issued a gale warning for the adjacent waters of
Agadir, Africa this afternoon. Gale conditions are forecast to
continue through Sat evening. For more information visit
www.meteofrance.com 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal 
near 14N17W and extends to near 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N19W to 04N31W, then resumes near 04N36W to 03N50W. Scattered  
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 08W and 17W,
and from 0N to 10N between 20W and 41W.  

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging anchored off the Carolinas extends a ridge SW
across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico while generally
lower pressure dominates the gulf waters W of 90W. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate return flow across the basin, except
for moderate to fresh NE to E winds off the coast of the Yucatan
peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft basin-wide. Smoke from agricultural
fires may be covering portions of the western Gulf. Latest SAB 
analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the 
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations 
along the coast of Mexico also indicate the presence of haze. 
Observations over the NW Gulf indicate hazy conditions as well. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near 
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the early 
morning hours through Wed night due to local effects related to a 
thermal trough. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the Gulf 
waters through the forecast period producing gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate 
to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf beginning on Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the southeast, south-
central and portions of the southwest Caribbean, with the 
strongest winds off the coast of Colombia where seas are 8 to 9 
ft. Across the remainder eastern, central and southwest Caribbean,
trade winds are generally moderate to fresh with seas in the 5 to
7 ft range. Fresh to strong E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Honduras with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to
3 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the 
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the 
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through 
early next week. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong offshore
northern Honduras, mainly at night. Moderate to fresh NE winds 
are expected at night in the Windward Passage Sat night through 
Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



For the forecast W of 55W, a weak low near 27.5N76W along a 
trough will drift SW through Sat with a surge of fresh to strong 
winds in its wake. A slowing cold front extending from 30N55W to 
near the Turks and Caicos Islands will drift SE, reaching from 
24N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W by Sat evening 
while weakening. NW swell with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will 
follow the front N of 28N and E of 65W through Sat. Otherwise, 
high press will follow the front, and dominate most of region 
through early next week, producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic
flow. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate early next week. 

$$ 

Ramos