000 AXNT20 KNHC 051031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri May 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W then continues SW to near 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 00N47W. A tropical wave-like feature in analyzed along 32W S of 10N. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the trough from 01N to 06N between 27W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 20W and 27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, with a 1017 mb high pressure located over the eastern Gulf near 27N84W. A surface trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong E winds just N of the Yucatan to about 23N between 88W and 91W associated with the trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the eastern Gulf with seas of 1 to 3 ft while moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail over the western Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires may be covering portions of the western Gulf. Latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations along the coast of Mexico also indicate the presence of haze. Multilayer clouds with possible showers are noted over most of the western Gulf under strong SW to W winds aloft. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf beginning on Sat. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the early morning hours through Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt near the coast of Colombia where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are observed over the SE Caribbean, including the ABC Islands, and also the islands N of Venezuela, particularly S of 14N and E of 70W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Fresh to locally strong E winds are in the Gulf of Honduras with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate the remainder of the east and central Caribbean, where seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are seen in the lee of Cuba to about 19N. The tail end of the Atlantic cold front was helping to induce convection over eastern Cuba. Patches of low level moisture, with embedded showers are moving across the NE Caribbean. The San Juan Doppler radar confirmed the presence of this shower activity. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through early next week. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected at night in the Windward Passage Sat night through Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the Atlantic from 31N56W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. A band of showers and thunderstorms is related to the front but mainly N of 27N. Fresh to strong SW winds are still noted ahead of the front N of 30N per scatterometer data. NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range follow the front. High pressure is building in the wake of the front. A surface trough extends from 30N76W to the NW Bahamas. An ASCAT pass indicates the wind shift associated with the trough. To the east of the front, another surface trough stretches from 25N54W to 20N59W. Patches of low clouds with possible showers are related to this trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure located near 29N34W. This system extends a ridge toward the NE Caribbean. Light and variable winds are near the high center. A belt of fresh to strong trade winds, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range is along the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge E of 40W while moderate to fresh winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the tropical Atlantic between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue to propagate SE, reaching from 31N53W to just S of the Turks and Caicos Islands by this evening, and from 24N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W by Sat evening. As previously mentioned, fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front N of 30N while NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range follow the front. Winds are expected to diminish 20 kt or less ahead of the front by early this morning while rough seas will continue to affect the NE waters through Sat night. High pressure will follow the front, and dominate most of region during the upcoming weekend producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. $$ GR