000
AXNT20 KNHC 041024
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 05N25W. The ITCZ extends 
from 05N25W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Clusters of
moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 04N to 09N 
between 10W and 17W, and from the Equator to 02N between 43W and 
50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the Gulf region anchored by a 1015
mb high pressure located over the eastern Gulf near 27N85W. A 
surface trough is located just W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Recent 
scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh NE winds
ahead of the trough axis to about 93W. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds are over the NW Gulf while gentle to moderate W to NW are
over the far NE Gulf. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail.
Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft over the western half of the Gulf 
and 1 to 3 ft over the eastern half. Smoke from agricultural 
fires may be covering portions of the SW Gulf. Latest SAB analysis
indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the western Gulf, 
including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations along the
coast of Mexico also indicate the presence of haze.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
Gulf waters the remainder of the week producing mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally 
strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan 
Peninsula each night into the early morning hours during the 
forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 10 
ft near the coast of Colombia. Similar wind speeds are near the
ABC Islands, and also the across the islands N of Venezuela, 
particularly S of 14N between 64W and 70W. Moderate to fresh trade
winds dominate the remainder of the east and central Caribbean, 
where seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. In the NW Caribbean, gentle 
to moderate winds are noted, with seas of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf 
of Honduras, and 2 to 3 ft elsewhere.

Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, extend from HOnduras
across the NW Caribbean and eastern Cuba into the the Bahamas. 
This cloudiness is associated with strong SW winds aloft ahead of
an upper-level trough that extends from western Cuba into the 
Gulf of Honduras. Patches of low level clouds, embedded in the 
trade wind flow, are moving from the Atlantic across the Lesser 
Antilles into the eastern Caribbean, producing isolated to 
scattered passing showers. A persistent mid to upper level 
anticyclone, now located over Venezuela, supports dry conditions 
over northern Venezuela and northern Guyana. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the 
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the 
south-central Caribbean through the week, with rough seas building
to 11 or 12 ft during the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
expected in the Windward Passage beginning Fri night. Winds will 
also pulse to fresh to locally strong nightly in the Gulf of 
Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from near Bermuda to
South Florida. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the
front mainly N of 28N with seas of 8 to 11 ft W of the front based
on altimeter data. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N64W 
to 24N73W. A band of showers and thunderstorms is related to the 
trough, and additional convective activity is now developing 
ahead of the trough axis N of 29N W of 58W. To the east, another 
surface trough extends from 22N51W to 15N56W. Patches of low 
clouds with possible showers are associated with this trough. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence 
of a 1025 mb high pressure located near 28N32W. Light and variable
winds are near the high center. An area of fresh NE winds is noted
along the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge just W of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are within these winds.
mainly moderate trades dominate the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic. Northerly swell continues to propagate across the waters
E of 50W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue 
to propagate SE, reaching from 31N58W to the central Bahamas this
evening, and from 31N52W to the easternmost tip of Cuba by Fri 
evening. Fresh to strong winds are occurring on either side of the
boundary mainly N of 28N with seas of 8 to 11 ft. These marine 
conditions will persist today as the front continues to moves SE 
over the forecast waters. In the wake of the front, weak high 
pressure will rebuild over the SE US, bringing light winds to the 
far western Atlantic later today. Looking ahead, a weak low 
pressure may develop off the SE US by Sun.

$$
GR