000 AXNT20 KNHC 040013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed May 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near Bissau, then continues southwestward to near 07N20W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 07N20W through 03N30W to north of Belem, Brazil at 01N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of the ITCZ from 02N to 06N between the coast of Liberia/Sierra Leone and 12W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A modest cold front reaches westward from near Fort Myers, Florida to near 27N86W. A surface trough extends north- northwestward from a 1009 mb low at the central Bay of Campeche to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers are seen near the trough across the northwestern and west-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present across the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are seen over the western Gulf. Both GeoColor satellite imagery and coastal observations of visibility down to 3 to 5 nm reveal moderate haze or smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche due to agricultural fires. Mariners navigating in these conditions should use caution. For the forecast, the tail end of an Atlantic cold front across the eastern Gulf will progress southeastward, clearing the basin on Thu. Impacts from this feature will be limited. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the pattern, producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the weekend. The exception is near the Yucatan Peninsula, where a nocturnal thermal trough will develop and cause fresh to strong winds near and northwest of the Peninsula each night through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Mid-Atlantic ridge north of the basin near 23N70W continues to support a relatively fair trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen at the north-central basin, and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. Persistent WSW to W winds at the upper levels are carrying thick cirrus caused by afternoon thunderstorms over Honduras across the northwestern basin. For the forecast, gradient between the Mid-Atlantic ridge and Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds with rough seas at the south-central Caribbean for the rest of the week. Seas are expected to peak near 12 ft during the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds are anticipated in the Windward Passage beginning Fri night. Winds will also pulse to between fresh and strong nightly in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A modest cold front curves southwestward from west of Bermuda across 31N73W to West Palm Beach, Florida. Coupling with SW divergent flow aloft, convergent surface winds south of the front are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over and northeast of the central Bahamas. A broad surface trough east of the Leeward Islands is causing widely scattered showers from 16N to 21N between 41W and 60W. Gentle to moderate W to SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft exist from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N between 78W and the Florida-George coast. Fresh to strong westerly winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft are evident behind the cold front north of 28N between the front and 78W. Moderate with locally fresh SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are found east of the front north of 25N between 50W and the front. Light to gentle winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in large northerly swell are seen near the 1022 mb Atlantic High, north of 21N between 20W and 50W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted north of 14N between the African coast and 25W, and farther west from 10N to 21N between 25W and 40W. To the west, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found from 05N to 21N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front will continue to propagate southeastward, reaching from 31N61W to south Florida near 26N80W by Thu morning, and from 31N54W to the central Bahamas near 23N75W by Fri morning. As the front progresses, fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the boundary through Thu, confined mostly north of 27N. In the wake of the front, weak high pressure will rebuild over the southeast US, bringing light winds to the far western Atlantic by Thu morning. Looking ahead, long range guidance suggests a weak low may develop off the southeast US by Sun. $$ Forecaster Chan