000 AXNT20 KNHC 301639 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Apr 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the Naples, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong to near-gale force W to NW winds are over the eastern Gulf, with frequent gusts to gale force within 60 nm of the coast from Louisiana to central Florida. The front will shift SE of the Gulf today, with winds diminishing through the day. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The same cold front described above has entered the western Atlantic this morning, extending from 31N80W to 29N81W. Gale to strong gale-force S winds are observed in a recent ASCAT pass across the western Atlantic, north of 25N and west of 75W, and will prevail through early this evening. Seas in these waters range from 8 to 12 ft. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these warnings. Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras is restricting visibility to 3 nm or less. Observations from Roatan, La Ceiba, and Tela have all been reporting low visibilities. Mariners are urged to exercise caution if traversing this area. The smoke has been transported over the waters by fresh to strong SE winds. These conditions are expected to continue through today. Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more information. Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and central America in April and early May, during the regions annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed with the haze creates a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners, especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N southward between 27W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for more information. A strong cold front extends from Naples, Florida to the Yucatan peninsula.Outside of the strong to near-gale force W to NW winds over the NE Gulf behind the front, moderate to fresh NW winds are elsewhere across the basin. Seas range from 8 to 11 ft over the eastern Gulf, 6 to 9 in the southwestern and central Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft in the far northwest Gulf, with the exception of 2 to 4 ft in the coastal waters. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward, pushing east of the basin today. Strong to near gale-force winds in the eastern Gulf will diminish today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, and become centered over the eastern Gulf Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are observed in the Gulf of Honduras, while moderate to fresh NE to E winds are off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in 4 to 6 ft range over the NW Caribbean, as well as, off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela. Elsewhere, seas are 2 to 4 ft For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds offshore eastern Honduras will continue through today and transport dense smoke from agricultural fires across the NW Caribbean waters. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean today, and reach from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected offshore of Colombia Mon night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Western Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section for more information. Ahead of the western Atlantic cold front, fresh to strong S winds are observed in a recent scatterometer pass north of 23N and W of 70W to the gale warning area. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft in these waters roughly between 70W and 75W. Further east, a cold front stretches across the central Atlantic waters from 31N29W to 22N47W, where it transitions to a weak surface trough that extends to 18N51W to 15N58W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are observed ahead of the cold front to 24W, north of 30N. Behind the front to 50W, seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range in NW to N swell and 5 to 7 ft from 50W to 70W in NE swell. Broad surface ridge extends SW from high pressure near 28N55W to the southern Bahamas and across the central Atlantic south of 23N to the northeast coast of South America, allowing for light to gentle winds north of 15N and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere to prevail across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, strong to gale-force southerly winds will prevail ahead of the western Atlantic front to the N of 28N and W of 70W, as well as in the coastal waters S of 28N, through early this evening. The front will then gradually weaken and slow early this week. The next front, weaker in intensity, may move across the northern waters by mid-week. $$ Nepaul