000 AXNT20 KNHC 300604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Apr 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold front passes through SW Alabama/the Florida Panhandle, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm of the Florida west coast from 25N to 27N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the cold front eastward. Gale-force winds, sometimes in gusts, are forecast in the coastal waters from Louisiana to the waters that are off west central Florida. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet, from the east central Gulf, into the west central Gulf, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. These conditions will continue across most of the Gulf through Sunday afternoon. Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: The same cold front that is moving through the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move off the USA east coast late tonight/ early on Sunday morning. Gale-force southerly winds have developed in the NE Florida offshore waters, to the east of the cold front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the west of the line that passes through 31N72W, to the central Bahamas. Wind gusts to gale-force are likely also. The front and the winds and the precipitation are forecast to continue to move eastward through Sunday evening. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras is restricting the visibilities to 3 nm or less. The surface observations from Roatan, La Ceiba, and Tela have been reporting low visibilities during the day, sometimes in the category of LIFR. Mariners are urged to exercise caution if they are traversing this area. The smoke has been pushed into the waters by fresh to strong SE winds. These conditions are expected to continue through the weekend. Please, read the Offshore Waters Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html, for more information. N.B. : Fires in southern Mexico and in central America burn off and on, in April and early May, during the region's annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixes with the haze, and it creates a smoky atmosphere. We see that dense smoke has the potential to affect mariners, especially in the NW Caribbean, including in the Gulf of Honduras and in the Gulf of Mexico, during this time of the year. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to 04N20W 02N21W, to the Equator along 29W, to 01N34W, to the Equator along 40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale-Force Wind Warning, that was issued for parts of the Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front has been moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Strong precipitation has been associated with the cold front during the last 24 hours or so. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet, from the east central Gulf, into the west central Gulf, into the SW corner of the area. A strong cold front from the the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan peninsula will move eastward, pushing east of the basin by the end of the weekend. An intense area of thunderstorms with locally higher winds and seas will precede the front. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front through around sunset, with frequent gusts to gale- force within 60 nm of the coast from Louisiana to Central Florida. High pres will build in the wake of the front, and become centered over the eastern Gulf Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about Dense Smoke, in the Gulf of Honduras. The sea heights generally range from 3 feet to 4 feet. Some exceptions are: 5 feet off the coast of central Colombia and central Venezuela; 2 feet off the coast of Honduras. Broad low pressure in over NW Colombia is enhancing the trade wind flow in the south central Caribbean Sea, where fresh to locally strong winds are common. A relatively weak surface pressure gradient has been supporting gentle to moderate trades elsewhere in the SW, the central, and in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are in the NW corner, in advance of the approaching cold front that currently is in the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong SE to S winds offshore eastern Honduras will continue through early Sun and transport dense smoke from agricultural fires across the NW Caribbean waters. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sun morning, and reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected offshore of Colombia tonight, returning Mon night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale-Force Wind Warning, that was issued for parts of the Western Atlantic Ocean. A surface ridge covers much of the rest of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean from 71W eastward. This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds between the central Bahamas and 55W. In the central Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from 31N36W to 22N52W with some showers ahead of it and long period swell supporting seas of 8 to 14 ft N of 26N between 30W and 54W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are between the coast of NW Africa and both the Cape Verde Islands and the Canary Islands. High pres along 25N will linger through tonight ahead of a strong cold front. The front is forecast to move off the US East Coast Sun night through Mon. Strong to gale- force southerly winds will prevail ahead of the front to the N of 28N and W of 70W, as well as in the coastal waters S of 28N, through early Sun evening. The front will then gradually weaken and slow early next week. Another, weaker front may move across the northern waters mid- week. $$ mt/al