000 AXNT20 KNHC 290353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Apr 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with strong southerly winds developing early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of 75W, increasing to gale-force N of 29N during the day on Sun. Winds will decrease below gale force late Sun or early Mon. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these warnings. Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras is restricting visibilities to 3 nm or less. Observations from Roatan, La Cieba, and Tela have all been reporting low visibilities today. Mariners are urged to exercise caution if traversing the Gulf of Honduras. The smoke has been transported over the waters by fresh SE winds. Dense smoke and reduced visibilities are expected to continue through the weekend. Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more information. Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and central America in April and early May, during the regions annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed with the haze to create a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners, especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues SW from 04N19W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to 04N between 29W and 40W. Isolated moderate convection is also observed along the monsoon trough and off the coast of Liberia. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section for more information. A weakening stationary front extends across the northern Gulf from near the Mississippi River Delta to 28N92W to near Galveston, Texas. A much stronger cold front currently stretches across central Texas with a prefrontal squall line approaching the coast. This system will bring numerous thunderstorms and gale force winds to the Gulf Sat. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NE Gulf from 26N to 29N between 84W and 88W. Winds are generally moderate across the basin, from the SE in the western Gulf and from the SW in the eastern Gulf. Winds are fresh to strong in the Yucatan Channel and north of the Peninsula. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the basin, except 5- 7 ft north of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fires in Mexico will linger across the central Gulf and Bay of Campeche tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are generally moderate in the central and eastern Caribbean from the east, except for an area of strong NE winds along the coast of Colombia. In the NW Caribbean, strong SE winds are observed in the Gulf of Honduras and surrounding waters, gradually decreasing to moderate south of Cuba. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range across the majority of the basin, likely reaching 6 ft along the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the NW Caribbean will continue through early Sun and transport dense smoke from agricultural fires across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to locally strong winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of this week. High pressure will build across the western Atlantic Sat night through Tue, leading to fresh to locally strong trade winds across the southeast and south-central Caribbean. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun morning, and reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic Ocean. Please see the Special Features section for more information. A broad ridge along 25N dominates the pattern in the western Atlantic. Winds are moderate to fresh from the SW north of the ridge, light within the ridge axis, and gentle to moderate from the east south of the ridge. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the western subtropical Atlantic. In the central Atlantic, a storm force low is centered near 36N48W. An associated cold front extends from 31N47W to 27N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 29N between 40W and 50W. A recent scatterometer pass found strong to near gale force SW winds ahead of the front and fresh to strong WNW winds behind the front. Seas are 8-12 ft north of 27N between 35W and 60W. Southeast of the front, a high-pressure ridge dominates the majority of the central and eastern basin with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. The gradient tightens along the coast of Africa, generating fresh N-NE winds. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will gradually build westward along 27N through the weekend. Fresh southwesterly winds will prevail east of northern Florida through tonight. Deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase winds and generate large northerly swell north of 27N and east of 60W through Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with strong southerly winds developing early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of 75W, increasing to gale-force N of 29N during the day on Sun. $$ Flynn