000 AXNT20 KNHC 282319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Apr 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras is severely restricting visibilities to 1 nm or less. Observations from Roatan, La Cieba, and Tela have all been reporting low visibilities today. Mariners are urged to exercise caution if traversing the Gulf of Honduras. The smoke has been transported over the waters by fresh SE winds. Dense smoke and reduced visibilities are expected to continue through the weekend. Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more information. Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and central America in April and early May, during the regions annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed with the haze to create a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners, especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N11W then continues SW to near 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 02S44W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 02N to 06N between 07W and 11W. This convective activity extends inland over parts of Liberia. Similar convection is also seen from the Equator to 04N between 26W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section for more information. A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W across the NW Gulf to near Galveston, Texas. A 1008 mb low is analyzed over the SW Gulf, with a surface trough extending NE to near 26N90W. Scatterometer data indicate an area of fresh to strong SE to S winds on the E side of the trough covering the waters from 23N to 26N between 85W and 90W. Mainly moderate to fresh southerly winds dominate most of the remainder of the eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle winds are over the western Gulf. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft. Satellite imagery shows smoke and haze over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, including the eastern Bay of Campeche, associated with agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America. Visibility may be reduced over these waters. Late this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms have flared-up over parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. For the forecast, the stationary front over the NW Gulf will weaken tonight. A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fires in Mexico will linger across the central Gulf and Bay of Campeche tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras. The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin with the exception of mainly fresh E to SE winds over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range, except 5 to 7 ft W of 85W. No deep convection is noted in the Caribbean Sea. Visible satellite imagery indicates smoke and haze over the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires in Central America. This may reduce the visibility over the waters described and mariners are asked to use caution. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the NW Caribbean will continue through this weekend and transport dense smoke from agricultural fires across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun, and reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Mon evening, where it will stall and dissipate on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N51W and extends SW to near 28N60W. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front mainly N of 28N E of front to about 49W while gentle to moderate winds follow the front. An area of showers and thunderstorms is E of the front near 30N48W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of high pressure, with a 1018 mb center near 25N43W and a second center of 1020 mb near 26N29W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high pressure centers, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the discussion waters. The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong S winds over the western Atlantic, particularly N of 28N and W of 75W, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Similar sea heights are also observed N of 24N E of 50W based on altimeter data. Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, is noted E of a line from 31N40W to 18N48W to about 30W. These clouds are ahead of an upper-level trough. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will build westward along 27N through the weekend. Fresh southwesterly winds will prevail east of northern Florida through tonight. Deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase winds and generate large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W through Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with strong southerly winds developing early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of 75W. $$ GR