000 AXNT20 KNHC 281735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Apr 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras is severely restricting visibilities to 1 nm or less. Observations from Roatan, La Cieba, and Tela have all been reporting low visibilities this morning. Mariners are urged to excercise caution if traversing the Gulf of Honduras. The smoke has been transported over the waters by fresh to strong SE winds. Visibility is 1 nm or less within waters south of a line from the coast of Honduras near 16N84W to 18N85W to the coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N88W. Visibility is 3 nm or less south of a line from the coast of Honduras near 15N83W to 19N85W to Cancun, Mexico. Dense smoke and reduced visibilites are expected through the weekend. Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N11W then continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the ITCZ is from 02S to 03N between 25W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING. The earlier squall line has dissipated. A small area of scattered moderate convection is analyzed from 26N to 27N between 85W and 87W. A trough and low pressure is analyzed in the SW Gulf. A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to the coast of Texas near 29N95W. Ahead of the front, moderate to locally fresh SE winds are noted with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas are 2-4 ft. Satellite imagery shows smoke and haze over the southern Gulf of Mexico associated with agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America. Visibility may be reduced over these waters. For the forecast, a stationary front over the NW Gulf will weaken today. A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fires in Mexico will linger across the west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche today. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on DENSE SMOKE in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the NW Caribbean as well as just off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the NW Caribbean will continue through this weekend and transport dense smoke from agricultural fires across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun, and reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Mon evening, where it will stall and dissipate on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front extends from 1016 mb low pressure near 28N23W to 19N41W. High pressures are centered as follows: 1018 mb at 26N47W, 1019 mb at 26N31W, and 1019 mb at 31N17W. A weak trough is analyzed along the Leeward Islands. Some showers are in the vicinity of an upper level low centered at 29N40W. Fresh to locally strong winds are found off the coast of N Florida. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high pressure centers, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas of 8-9 ft area found N of 29N between 35W and 48W, with seas of 5-6 ft prevailing elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will build westward along 27N through the weekend. Fresh southwesterly winds will prevail east of northern Florida through tonight. Deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase winds and generate large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W through Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with strong southerly winds developing early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of 75W. $$ Mahoney